Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range weather model ensembles for Munich Airport's highest temperature on May 2, with ECMWF, GFS, and DWD's ICON forecasts clustering around 24-25°C amid a high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow and mostly sunny skies. The near-even split between 25°C (30.5%) and 24°C (29.5%) stems from divergent predictions on afternoon cumulus cloud development and boundary-layer mixing, potentially capping peaks at 24°C or allowing 25°C under clearer conditions, while 26°C or higher (21.3%) hinges on stronger subsidence. Current observations show cooling to 3°C this morning after recent variability, but ample insolation favors above-seasonal norms (historical May 2 average ~17°C). Key DWD updates and fresh ECMWF ensembles due within 24 hours could tip the balance near resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on May 2?
Highest temperature in Munich on May 2?
25°C 32%
24°C 31%
26°C or higher 22.7%
23°C 7%
NEW
$12,997 Vol.
NEW
$12,997 Vol.
May 2, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
4%
23°C
7%
24°C
31%
25°C
32%
26°C or higher
23%
25°C 32%
24°C 31%
26°C or higher 22.7%
23°C 7%
NEW
$12,997 Vol.
NEW
$12,997 Vol.
May 2, 2026
16°C or below
$461 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$452 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,459 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,828 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,504 Vol.
1%
21°C
$1,897 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1,635 Vol.
4%
23°C
$1,345 Vol.
7%
24°C
$891 Vol.
31%
25°C
$927 Vol.
32%
26°C or higher
$842 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range weather model ensembles for Munich Airport's highest temperature on May 2, with ECMWF, GFS, and DWD's ICON forecasts clustering around 24-25°C amid a high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow and mostly sunny skies. The near-even split between 25°C (30.5%) and 24°C (29.5%) stems from divergent predictions on afternoon cumulus cloud development and boundary-layer mixing, potentially capping peaks at 24°C or allowing 25°C under clearer conditions, while 26°C or higher (21.3%) hinges on stronger subsidence. Current observations show cooling to 3°C this morning after recent variability, but ample insolation favors above-seasonal norms (historical May 2 average ~17°C). Key DWD updates and fresh ECMWF ensembles due within 24 hours could tip the balance near resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$12,997End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range weather model ensembles for Munich Airport's highest temperature on May 2, with ECMWF, GFS, and DWD's ICON forecasts clustering around 24-25°C amid a high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow and mostly sunny skies. The near-even split between 25°C (30.5%) and 24°C (29.5%) stems from divergent predictions on afternoon cumulus cloud development and boundary-layer mixing, potentially capping peaks at 24°C or allowing 25°C under clearer conditions, while 26°C or higher (21.3%) hinges on stronger subsidence. Current observations show cooling to 3°C this morning after recent variability, but ample insolation favors above-seasonal norms (historical May 2 average ~17°C). Key DWD updates and fresh ECMWF ensembles due within 24 hours could tip the balance near resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,997End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range weather model ensembles for Munich Airport's highest temperature on May 2, with ECMWF, GFS, and DWD's ICON forecasts clustering around 24-25°C amid a high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow and mostly sunny skies. The near-even split between 25°C (30.5%) and 24°C (29.5%) stems from divergent predictions on afternoon cumulus cloud development and boundary-layer mixing, potentially capping peaks at 24°C or allowing 25°C under clearer conditions, while 26°C or higher (21.3%) hinges on stronger subsidence. Current observations show cooling to 3°C this morning after recent variability, but ample insolation favors above-seasonal norms (historical May 2 average ~17°C). Key DWD updates and fresh ECMWF ensembles due within 24 hours could tip the balance near resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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