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Highest temperature in Miami on May 4?

icon for Highest temperature in Miami on May 4?

Highest temperature in Miami on May 4?

May 1

May 2

May 3

May 4

May 1

May 2

May 3

May 4

80-81°F 29%

82-83°F 28%

84-85°F 15%

78-79°F 14%

Polymarket
NEW

80-81°F 29%

82-83°F 28%

84-85°F 15%

78-79°F 14%

Polymarket
NEW

75°F or below

$33 Vol.

1%

76-77°F

$20 Vol.

5%

78-79°F

$27 Vol.

18%

80-81°F

$95 Vol.

29%

82-83°F

$8 Vol.

26%

84-85°F

$2 Vol.

16%

86-87°F

$14 Vol.

5%

88-89°F

$20 Vol.

1%

90-91°F

$63 Vol.

1%

92-93°F

$5 Vol.

1%

94°F or higher

$155 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance for Miami International Airport forecasts a high near 82°F on May 4, amid post-frontal cooling following Sunday showers from an approaching boundary, driving closely matched market-implied probabilities of 35-37% across 78-87°F bins. Observed near-record heat of 86-87°F on May 1 has traders weighing residual warmth against enhanced sea breeze convergence and potential lingering convection, which could cap peaks at 78-79°F if widespread or allow 84-86°F if patchy. Model ensembles diverge modestly—GFS warmer near 84°F, ECMWF cooler at 80°F—highlighting uncertainty in boundary layer moisture and upper-level trough influences over South Florida's humid subtropical regime, where May climatological averages hover at 85°F. New 12z runs and afternoon forecast discussions will refine trajectories before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$442
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance for Miami International Airport forecasts a high near 82°F on May 4, amid post-frontal cooling following Sunday showers from an approaching boundary, driving closely matched market-implied probabilities of 35-37% across 78-87°F bins. Observed near-record heat of 86-87°F on May 1 has traders weighing residual warmth against enhanced sea breeze convergence and potential lingering convection, which could cap peaks at 78-79°F if widespread or allow 84-86°F if patchy. Model ensembles diverge modestly—GFS warmer near 84°F, ECMWF cooler at 80°F—highlighting uncertainty in boundary layer moisture and upper-level trough influences over South Florida's humid subtropical regime, where May climatological averages hover at 85°F. New 12z runs and afternoon forecast discussions will refine trajectories before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$442
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Miami on May 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "80-81°F" at 28%, followed by "82-83°F" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Miami on May 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Miami on May 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Miami on May 4?" is "80-81°F" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "82-83°F" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Miami on May 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.