Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Houston's post-frontal temperature recovery on May 3, with National Weather Service guidance showing today's (May 1) high capped at 67°F amid ongoing showers and thunderstorms from a stalled coastal boundary, per the latest Area Forecast Discussion. Ensemble model runs from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF diverge on Sunday's peak, with some members forecasting partial cloud cover delaying highs to the upper 70s while others project quicker clearing under building high pressure and light southerly winds, pushing toward 82°F or higher—aligning with early May climatological averages near 82°F. Key differentiators include sea breeze timing and boundary layer mixing; watch 12Z model updates Saturday for refined probabilities ahead of resolution at official observation sites like Bush Intercontinental Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on May 3?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 3?
78-79°F 36%
82°F or higher 25%
80-81°F 21%
76-77°F 17%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
25%
78-79°F
36%
80-81°F
21%
82°F or higher
25%
78-79°F 36%
82°F or higher 25%
80-81°F 21%
76-77°F 17%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
63°F or below
$328 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$5 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$10 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$10 Vol.
3%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
3%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
3%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$169 Vol.
25%
78-79°F
$7 Vol.
36%
80-81°F
$49 Vol.
21%
82°F or higher
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Houston's post-frontal temperature recovery on May 3, with National Weather Service guidance showing today's (May 1) high capped at 67°F amid ongoing showers and thunderstorms from a stalled coastal boundary, per the latest Area Forecast Discussion. Ensemble model runs from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF diverge on Sunday's peak, with some members forecasting partial cloud cover delaying highs to the upper 70s while others project quicker clearing under building high pressure and light southerly winds, pushing toward 82°F or higher—aligning with early May climatological averages near 82°F. Key differentiators include sea breeze timing and boundary layer mixing; watch 12Z model updates Saturday for refined probabilities ahead of resolution at official observation sites like Bush Intercontinental Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:25 AM ET
Volume
$578End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:25 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Houston's post-frontal temperature recovery on May 3, with National Weather Service guidance showing today's (May 1) high capped at 67°F amid ongoing showers and thunderstorms from a stalled coastal boundary, per the latest Area Forecast Discussion. Ensemble model runs from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF diverge on Sunday's peak, with some members forecasting partial cloud cover delaying highs to the upper 70s while others project quicker clearing under building high pressure and light southerly winds, pushing toward 82°F or higher—aligning with early May climatological averages near 82°F. Key differentiators include sea breeze timing and boundary layer mixing; watch 12Z model updates Saturday for refined probabilities ahead of resolution at official observation sites like Bush Intercontinental Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$578End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:25 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Houston's post-frontal temperature recovery on May 3, with National Weather Service guidance showing today's (May 1) high capped at 67°F amid ongoing showers and thunderstorms from a stalled coastal boundary, per the latest Area Forecast Discussion. Ensemble model runs from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF diverge on Sunday's peak, with some members forecasting partial cloud cover delaying highs to the upper 70s while others project quicker clearing under building high pressure and light southerly winds, pushing toward 82°F or higher—aligning with early May climatological averages near 82°F. Key differentiators include sea breeze timing and boundary layer mixing; watch 12Z model updates Saturday for refined probabilities ahead of resolution at official observation sites like Bush Intercontinental Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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