Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton shows no signs of dropping out of the Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate against incumbent John Cornyn, with trader consensus pricing "No" at 93.7% implied probability ahead of the May 26 vote. The March 17 ballot withdrawal deadline passed without action despite Paxton's earlier conditional offer to exit if Senate Republicans advanced the SAVE Act voter ID measure—a proposal that stalled. In the past 30 days, Paxton has remained active in office, filing lawsuits against entities like Permian Basin Containers and probing local election compliance, underscoring his commitment amid routine scrutiny over office expenses. Absent late-breaking scandals, health issues, or Trump endorsement shifts, structural barriers to last-minute withdrawal keep odds heavily tilted against a dropout.