Valencia reveals government warning of assassination plot by dissident FARC guerrillas, raising security concerns around her campaign

Valencia reveals government warning of assassination plot by dissident FARC guerrillas, raising security concerns around her campaign

New Invamer poll shows Iván Cepeda leading with 44.3%, while Claudia López’s support collapses to 3.6%, signaling diminished electoral prospects

Claudia López dips to 0%4%

This poll confirmed her declining viability, driving the market

Iván Cepeda rejects conditions for debates with right-wing candidates, emphasizing dignity and political principles, which resonated with his base and maintained his strong market

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 90%5%

Iván Cepeda rejects conditions for debates with right-wing candidates, emphasizing dignity and political principles, which resonated with his base and maintained his strong market position

Abelardo de la Espriella denounces a "dirty campaign" against him, revealing an alleged "Operation Jupiter" aimed at undermining his candidacy, highlighting ongoing political

Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 4%4%

Abelardo de la Espriella denounces a "dirty campaign" against him, revealing an alleged "Operation Jupiter" aimed at undermining his candidacy, highlighting ongoing political attacks and campaign struggles

Heightened security measures announced for presidential candidates, including Iván Cepeda, amid threats, reinforcing his status as a leading contender and increasing market

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 95%5%

Heightened security measures announced for presidential candidates, including Iván Cepeda, amid threats, reinforcing his status as a leading contender and increasing market confidence

Valencia publicly supports fracking for natural gas to address energy deficit, a controversial stance that may have alienated some voters

Paloma Valencia dips to 1%4%

Valencia publicly supports fracking for natural gas to address energy deficit, a controversial stance that may have alienated some voters

Viral manipulated video falsely portraying Abelardo de la Espriella in a negative light circulates on social media, damaging his public image despite fact-checks clarifying the

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 8%5%

Viral manipulated video falsely portraying Abelardo de la Espriella in a negative light circulates on social media, damaging his public image despite fact-checks clarifying the alteration

Valencia pledges $14 billion deficit cut and fiscal discipline, aiming to appeal to economic voters amid fiscal concerns

Paloma Valencia plunges to 5%15%

Valencia pledges $14 billion deficit cut and fiscal discipline, aiming to appeal to economic voters amid fiscal concerns

President Gustavo Petro publicly reveals that the CIA has concrete information about a possible attack against Iván Cepeda, highlighting security risks but also underscoring

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 94%8%

President Gustavo Petro publicly reveals that the CIA has concrete information about a possible attack against Iván Cepeda, highlighting security risks but also underscoring Cepeda’s prominence and the seriousness of his candidacy

Abelardo de la Espriella publicly defends Antioquia and attacks Iván Cepeda after Cepeda's accusations linking Antioquia to narcoeconomy, intensifying political polarization and

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 8%3%

Abelardo de la Espriella publicly defends Antioquia and attacks Iván Cepeda after Cepeda's accusations linking Antioquia to narcoeconomy, intensifying political polarization and campaign tensions

Poll shows Valencia and Oviedo ticket rising to second place with 22.2% support, displacing rival Abelardo de la Espriella

Paloma Valencia rises to 20%3%

Poll shows Valencia and Oviedo ticket rising to second place with 22.2% support, displacing rival Abelardo de la Espriella

Iván Cepeda publicly rebukes media speculation about his health, affirming his fitness for presidency, which helped stabilize and improve market confidence

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 86%9%

Iván Cepeda publicly rebukes media speculation about his health, affirming his fitness for presidency, which helped stabilize and improve market confidence

Paloma Valencia announces economist Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential running mate to broaden appeal beyond traditional conservative base

Paloma Valencia rises to 20%3%

Paloma Valencia announces economist Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential running mate to broaden appeal beyond traditional conservative base

Abelardo de la Espriella faces sharp decline in support after controversy over alleged offensive comments about rival Juan Daniel Oviedo, leading to public backlash and market drop

Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 5%11%

Abelardo de la Espriella faces sharp decline in support after controversy over alleged offensive comments about rival Juan Daniel Oviedo, leading to public backlash and market drop

Valencia’s strong primary performance complicates the presidential race, signaling her as a main contender against left and far-right candidates

Paloma Valencia rises to 17%4%

Valencia’s strong primary performance complicates the presidential race, signaling her as a main contender against left and far-right candidates

Iván Cepeda announces Senator and Indigenous leader Aída Quilcué as his vice-presidential running mate, strengthening his appeal to Indigenous and social movements and boosting

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 82%12%

Iván Cepeda announces Senator and Indigenous leader Aída Quilcué as his vice-presidential running mate, strengthening his appeal to Indigenous and social movements and boosting his electoral prospects

Claudia López wins the centrist primary decisively, securing her place as the center’s candidate for the May 31 election

Claudia López rises to 4%3%

Her primary victory briefly boosted market confidence, reflected in a small

Paloma Valencia wins right-wing primary decisively with 46% of votes, becoming the leading conservative candidate and boosting her market

Paloma Valencia jumps to 13%10%

Paloma Valencia wins right-wing primary decisively with 46% of votes, becoming the leading conservative candidate and boosting her market

Abelardo de la Espriella files formal legal complaint against David Murcia Guzmán for defamatory accusations, attempting to defend his reputation amid negative publicity

Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 20%3%

Abelardo de la Espriella files formal legal complaint against David Murcia Guzmán for defamatory accusations, attempting to defend his reputation amid negative publicity

David Luna’s campaign fades from public attention amid rising front-runners

David Luna Sánchez dips to 0%1%

By mid-February, Luna’s campaign had effectively lost traction, with no major endorsements or media coverage, leading to his market

Colombia’s National Civil Registry invalidates 45.3% of Luis Gilberto Murillo’s citizen endorsement signatures due to irregularities, undermining his independent candidacy’s

Luis Gilberto Murillo dips to 1%2%

Colombia’s National Civil Registry invalidates 45.3% of Luis Gilberto Murillo’s citizen endorsement signatures due to irregularities, undermining his independent candidacy’s momentum and credibility ahead of official registration deadlines

Abelardo de la Espriella leads AtlasIntel/Semana poll with 33%, narrowly ahead of Iván Cepeda, signaling peak campaign momentum and increased market confidence

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 23%5%

Abelardo de la Espriella leads AtlasIntel/Semana poll with 33%, narrowly ahead of Iván Cepeda, signaling peak campaign momentum and increased market confidence

Iván Cepeda files a criminal complaint against ex-President Andrés Pastrana over alleged misuse of military assets linked to Jeffrey Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell, gaining

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 77%11%

Iván Cepeda files a criminal complaint against ex-President Andrés Pastrana over alleged misuse of military assets linked to Jeffrey Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell, gaining media attention and reinforcing his anti-corruption image

Public political rapprochement between Abelardo de la Espriella and journalist Vicky Dávila signals strategic alliance on the right to defeat Iván Cepeda, temporarily boosting

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 23%3%

Public political rapprochement between Abelardo de la Espriella and journalist Vicky Dávila signals strategic alliance on the right to defeat Iván Cepeda, temporarily boosting campaign optimism

Colombia's National Electoral Council excludes Iván Cepeda from the interparty left-wing primary, forcing him to run directly in the first round, which raised his profile and

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 66%12%

Colombia's National Electoral Council excludes Iván Cepeda from the interparty left-wing primary, forcing him to run directly in the first round, which raised his profile and market confidence

Abelardo de la Espriella forms strategic alliance with Jaime Andrés Beltrán, ex-mayor of Bucaramanga, who abandons Senate bid to become regional campaign manager, strengthening

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 23%6%

Abelardo de la Espriella forms strategic alliance with Jaime Andrés Beltrán, ex-mayor of Bucaramanga, who abandons Senate bid to become regional campaign manager, strengthening territorial campaign efforts

Abelardo de la Espriella formally adheres to the international right-wing "Carta de Madrid" network, aligning with leaders like Santiago Abascal and Javier Milei, boosting his

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 26%9%

Abelardo de la Espriella formally adheres to the international right-wing "Carta de Madrid" network, aligning with leaders like Santiago Abascal and Javier Milei, boosting his profile among conservative voters

Market briefly reacts to minor campaign activity or statements by Luna

David Luna Sánchez rises to 5%3%

A small uptick in Luna’s market

Early polls show sharp drop in support for Valencia amid rising competition, causing market

Paloma Valencia plunges to 14%36%

Early polls show sharp drop in support for Valencia amid rising competition, causing market

Murillo highlights strong Colombia-US relations as ambassador, but this diplomatic focus contrasts with his low electoral profile, failing to boost his candidacy’s market standing

Murillo highlights strong Colombia-US relations as ambassador, but this diplomatic focus contrasts with his low electoral profile, failing to boost his candidacy’s market standing

Abelardo de la Espriella loses significant market confidence after initial surge, possibly due to emerging doubts about his campaign viability

Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 15%34%

(No direct news event found for this exact date, but the sharp drop suggests early campaign skepticism.)

Iván Cepeda consolidates as the left-wing candidate and gains recognition as the candidate of the Historic Pact, with polls showing growing support amid a polarized political

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%8%

Iván Cepeda consolidates as the left-wing candidate and gains recognition as the candidate of the Historic Pact, with polls showing growing support amid a polarized political landscape

Other candidates consolidate support in primary elections, diminishing Luna’s prospects

David Luna Sánchez dips to 2%4%

Following primary elections and party consolidations, Luna’s independent campaign lost momentum as major parties rallied behind other candidates, reducing his perceived viability.

Paloma Valencia starts as a leading candidate with high market expectations following early campaign positioning

Paloma Valencia starts as a leading candidate with high market expectations following early campaign positioning

Colombian government cabinet reshuffle amid campaign finance scandal involving President Petro’s allies, increasing political uncertainty

Claudia López plunges to 10%40%

The political turmoil likely undermined centrist candidates like López, contributing to a sharp

Luis Gilberto Murillo announces resignation as Foreign Minister effective February 1, 2025, amid diplomatic tensions and political challenges, with Laura Sarabia named as his

Luis Gilberto Murillo dips to 1%2%

Luis Gilberto Murillo announces resignation as Foreign Minister effective February 1, 2025, amid diplomatic tensions and political challenges, with Laura Sarabia named as his successor, marking a formal end to his government role and intensifying his campaign efforts

Claudia López registers her precandidacy for the 2026 presidential election as an independent, positioning herself outside traditional parties and emphasizing an anti-corruption agenda

This event marks the start of market interest in her candidacy, initially

Political analysts note Murillo’s relatively low public recognition and limited weight in the presidential race despite his ministerial role, as other left-wing contenders gain

Luis Gilberto Murillo dips to 3%3%

Political analysts note Murillo’s relatively low public recognition and limited weight in the presidential race despite his ministerial role, as other left-wing contenders gain prominence, contributing to his declining market support

David Luna resigns from Senate and Cambio Radical party to focus on independent presidential precandidacy

David Luna Sánchez plunges to 6%44%

David Luna announced his resignation from his Senate seat and party affiliation to pursue an independent or citizen movement presidential precandidacy, signaling a shift that initially caused uncertainty and a sharp drop in market confidence.

Reports emerge that Luis Gilberto Murillo may resign as Colombia’s Foreign Minister between December 2024 and January 2025 to focus on the 2026 presidential campaign, signaling

Luis Gilberto Murillo plunges to 6%44%

Reports emerge that Luis Gilberto Murillo may resign as Colombia’s Foreign Minister between December 2024 and January 2025 to focus on the 2026 presidential campaign, signaling his transition from government office to active candidacy