President Trump remains in office past the April 30 deadline, cementing trader consensus at 100% "No" for him being out as President, as confirmed by official White House statements and continuity of executive functions into May. High confidence stems from the absence of any successful impeachment by the House and two-thirds Senate conviction, invocation of the 25th Amendment by Vice President Vance and a majority of principal officers, resignation announcement, or incapacitating health event during his second term through late April 2026. No notable developments in the past 30 days—such as congressional investigations advancing to removal votes or cabinet declarations—have disrupted this status quo. Realistic scenarios to shift odds, though improbable post-deadline, include late-breaking verified reports of prior incapacity or disputed resolution criteria based on primary sources like the U.S. Constitution or official records.