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Elecciones·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-04

icon for Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-04
Elecciones·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-04

Laura Gillen 98.1%

Nicholas Sciretta <1%

Gian Jones <1%

Taylor Darling <1%

Polymarket

$35,398 Vol.

Laura Gillen 98.1%

Nicholas Sciretta <1%

Gian Jones <1%

Taylor Darling <1%

Polymarket

$35,398 Vol.

Laura Gillen

$15,198 Vol.

98%

Nicholas Sciretta

$13,275 Vol.

<1%

Gian Jones

$3,164 Vol.

<1%

Taylor Darling

$3,761 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Laura Gillen’s commanding lead in the NY-04 Democratic primary reflects the recent cancellation of the June 23 contest, with all listed challengers having withdrawn or been disqualified, allowing the incumbent to advance automatically as the nominee. Fundraising data shows Gillen holding a substantial cash advantage over remaining or former opponents such as Nicholas Sciretta, Gian Jones, and Taylor Darling, while her 2024 general-election performance and early positioning for the 2026 rematch have consolidated party support. Trader consensus at 98 percent incorporates the absence of viable primary opposition and standard incumbency dynamics in a safely Democratic district. The only realistic paths to altering the outcome before the primary date would involve unforeseen late filings, legal reversals of disqualifications, or rapid shifts in eligibility that have not materialized.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$35,398
Fecha de finalización
23 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Laura Gillen’s commanding lead in the NY-04 Democratic primary reflects the recent cancellation of the June 23 contest, with all listed challengers having withdrawn or been disqualified, allowing the incumbent to advance automatically as the nominee. Fundraising data shows Gillen holding a substantial cash advantage over remaining or former opponents such as Nicholas Sciretta, Gian Jones, and Taylor Darling, while her 2024 general-election performance and early positioning for the 2026 rematch have consolidated party support. Trader consensus at 98 percent incorporates the absence of viable primary opposition and standard incumbency dynamics in a safely Democratic district. The only realistic paths to altering the outcome before the primary date would involve unforeseen late filings, legal reversals of disqualifications, or rapid shifts in eligibility that have not materialized.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$35,398
Fecha de finalización
23 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-04" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Laura Gillen" con 98%, seguido de "Nicholas Sciretta" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 98¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 98% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-04" ha generado $35.4K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 1, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-04", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-04" es "Laura Gillen" con 98%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 98% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Nicholas Sciretta" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-04" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.