Ongoing transmission of Bundibugyo Ebola virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's Ituri Province and linked cases in Uganda, declared a public health emergency of international concern in May 2026, forms the central driver of market positioning. As of early June, DRC authorities report over 300 confirmed cases and dozens of deaths, while Uganda has confirmed around a dozen cases tied to travel from affected zones. Insecurity, population displacement, mining activity, and cross-border movement elevate spillover risks to neighboring countries such as Rwanda and Burundi. The Bundibugyo strain lacks approved vaccines or therapeutics, increasing uncertainty around containment compared with prior Zaire-strain outbreaks. WHO and CDC surveillance updates, contact-tracing data, and any new laboratory confirmations outside the current epicenter remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities for additional countries reporting cases by year-end.