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Mundo·Elecciones Globales

¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?

icon for ¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?
Mundo·Elecciones Globales

¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?

$384,334 Vol.

4 oct 2026
Polymarket

$384,334 Vol.

Polymarket

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$172,293 Vol.

84%

Flavio Bolsonaro

$36,301 Vol.

66%

Fernando Haddad

$57,330 Vol.

6%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$27,366 Vol.

4%

Tarcisio de Freitas

$78,302 Vol.

3%

Jair Bolsonaro

$12,742 Vol.

3%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) remain the clear frontrunners to advance from Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round.** Lula seeks a fourth term while Flávio carries the banner for the ineligible Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party base. Recent Datafolha and AtlasIntel surveys show the pair locked in a tight runoff matchup, with Lula holding a narrow edge after Flávio lost ground from May audio leaks tying him to a disgraced banker in a film-funding controversy. First-round intentions place Lula in the high 30s to low 40s and Flávio in the high 20s to mid-30s, well ahead of alternatives such as Romeu Zema (NOVO) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD). July party conventions and ongoing coalition negotiations will shape final slates, but the current polling gap and historical precedent of runoffs make a Lula–Flávio second round on October 25 the dominant trader consensus reflected in market pricing. Economic conditions, security concerns, and any further legal or scandal developments before October remain the main variables that could shift first-round ordering.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$384,334
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) remain the clear frontrunners to advance from Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round.** Lula seeks a fourth term while Flávio carries the banner for the ineligible Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party base. Recent Datafolha and AtlasIntel surveys show the pair locked in a tight runoff matchup, with Lula holding a narrow edge after Flávio lost ground from May audio leaks tying him to a disgraced banker in a film-funding controversy. First-round intentions place Lula in the high 30s to low 40s and Flávio in the high 20s to mid-30s, well ahead of alternatives such as Romeu Zema (NOVO) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD). July party conventions and ongoing coalition negotiations will shape final slates, but the current polling gap and historical precedent of runoffs make a Lula–Flávio second round on October 25 the dominant trader consensus reflected in market pricing. Economic conditions, security concerns, and any further legal or scandal developments before October remain the main variables that could shift first-round ordering.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$384,334
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" con 84%, seguido de "Flavio Bolsonaro" con 66%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 84¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 84% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?" ha generado $384.3K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Sep 18, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?" es "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" con 84%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 84% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Flavio Bolsonaro" con 66%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.