Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term for the Workers’ Party amid a polarized contest, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro carries the Liberal Party banner after receiving his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement; the former president remains ineligible following his conviction. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys show Lula and Flávio neck-and-neck or with narrow Lula leads in runoff simulations, though a May audio scandal linking Flávio to a major fraud case eroded his support and widened some margins. First-round polling remains fragmented, with center-right figures such as Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado plus outsider Renan Santos drawing single-digit shares that could influence which two candidates advance on October 4. Party conventions in July and formal registrations by mid-August will clarify coalitions ahead of the potential October 25 runoff.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?
$384,334 Vol.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
84%
Flavio Bolsonaro
66%
Fernando Haddad
6%
Michelle Bolsonaro
4%
Tarcisio de Freitas
4%
Jair Bolsonaro
3%
$384,334 Vol.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
84%
Flavio Bolsonaro
66%
Fernando Haddad
6%
Michelle Bolsonaro
4%
Tarcisio de Freitas
4%
Jair Bolsonaro
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term for the Workers’ Party amid a polarized contest, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro carries the Liberal Party banner after receiving his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement; the former president remains ineligible following his conviction. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys show Lula and Flávio neck-and-neck or with narrow Lula leads in runoff simulations, though a May audio scandal linking Flávio to a major fraud case eroded his support and widened some margins. First-round polling remains fragmented, with center-right figures such as Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado plus outsider Renan Santos drawing single-digit shares that could influence which two candidates advance on October 4. Party conventions in July and formal registrations by mid-August will clarify coalitions ahead of the potential October 25 runoff.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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