Market

Chuck Smith dips to 2%2%

The market settled on a near-zero probability for Smith's nomination following official results and consensus reporting.

Mizusawa’s campaign releases new policy proposals and endorsements

Bert Mizusawa rises to 52%4%

Campaign developments and endorsements helped stabilize and slightly increase Mizusawa’s market position.

Polls and media coverage increasingly favor other Republican candidates like Kim Farrington and Bert Mizusawa

As polling data and media narratives favored other candidates, Mina’s chances were perceived as minimal, stabilizing his market

Polls show incumbent Democrat Mark Warner as strong favorite, reducing perceived viability of Republican challengers including Williams

Polls show incumbent Democrat Mark Warner as strong favorite, reducing perceived viability of Republican challengers including Williams

Continued campaign activity and endorsements for Farington help stabilize her market position amid a competitive primary field

Kim Farington jumps to 16%8%

Continued campaign activity and endorsements for Farington help stabilize her market position amid a competitive primary field

Market volatility as polls and news show tightening Republican primary race

Bert Mizusawa drops to 48%8%

Competitive dynamics among GOP candidates caused fluctuations in Mizusawa’s market odds.

Virginia holds a statewide ballot measure election, drawing voter attention away from the Senate primary and limiting Williams' visibility

David Williams dips to 22%3%

Virginia holds a statewide ballot measure election, drawing voter attention away from the Senate primary and limiting Williams' visibility

Virginia holds a special election and ballot measure election unrelated to Chuck Smith but confirming political environment

Virginia holds a special election and ballot measure election unrelated to Chuck Smith but confirming political environment

Virginia holds a special election on a redistricting referendum, drawing voter attention away from lesser-known Senate candidates

Al Mina drops to 1%5%

The special election and referendum shifted focus from the Senate primary race, further diminishing Mina’s visibility and market confidence.

Republican Party of Virginia confirms Hung Cao as the Republican primary winner over Chuck Smith and others in reporting

Chuck Smith dips to 3%4%

Media outlets reported Hung Cao's primary victory, effectively ending Smith's chances and pushing his market

Mizusawa’s campaign gains media attention highlighting his military background and Trump advisory role

Bert Mizusawa surges to 57%23%

Positive media coverage and campaign momentum contributed to a peak in Mizusawa’s market.

Official filing deadline passes with Chuck Smith not qualifying for the Republican primary ballot

Chuck Smith plunges to 6%27%

The April 2 filing deadline confirmed Smith's exclusion from the ballot, causing a steep drop in his market

Official candidate filing deadline passes with multiple Republicans on the ballot, diluting Williams' chances

David Williams dips to 22%3%

Official candidate filing deadline passes with multiple Republicans on the ballot, diluting Williams' chances

Virginia candidate filing deadline passes with Aldous Mina officially on the Republican primary ballot

Al Mina dips to 6%4%

The filing deadline confirmed Mina’s candidacy but also solidified the field, with stronger candidates gaining more attention, leading to a

Republican Party of Virginia announces three certified candidates for the Senate primary, including Mizusawa

Bert Mizusawa surges to 34%16%

Official party announcement reaffirmed Mizusawa’s candidacy, leading to renewed market optimism.

Farington's campaign gains modest momentum with renewed volunteer efforts and outreach, slightly improving market perception

Kim Farington jumps to 15%8%

Farington's campaign gains modest momentum with renewed volunteer efforts and outreach, slightly improving market perception

Market reacts to reports that Chuck Smith's lawsuit to appear on the ballot is unlikely to succeed

Chuck Smith drops to 31%11%

Speculation waned as credible sources indicated Smith would not qualify, leading to a sharp

Filing deadline passes with Mizusawa officially on the ballot alongside other Republican candidates

Bert Mizusawa plunges to 18%15%

Market reacted to the finalized candidate list, with some profit-taking or reassessment of Mizusawa’s chances causing a.

Mark Warner files for reelection, formally launching his campaign and reinforcing his strong incumbent position, which pressures Republican challengers including Farington

Kim Farington drops to 2%8%

Mark Warner files for reelection, formally launching his campaign and reinforcing his strong incumbent position, which pressures Republican challengers including Farington

Mark Warner files for reelection; Republican field includes Kim Farrington, Aldous Mina, and others

Al Mina rises to 13%1%

Warner’s formal campaign launch and the announcement of Republican candidates including Aldous Mina brought brief attention to Mina, causing a slight uptick in market

Republican primary candidate Sarah Adlakha wins a related primary, highlighting competitive dynamics in the GOP field and overshadowing Williams

Republican primary candidate Sarah Adlakha wins a related primary, highlighting competitive dynamics in the GOP field and overshadowing Williams

Mark Warner files for reelection, formally launching his campaign for a fourth Senate term

Bert Mizusawa surges to 38%22%

Warner’s filing clarified the general election landscape, prompting speculation on GOP primary dynamics and boosting Mizusawa’s market.

Chuck Smith's pending lawsuit to qualify for the Republican primary ballot gains attention but faces skepticism

Chuck Smith jumps to 39%11%

News coverage of Smith's legal challenge briefly boosted his market

Republican Party of Virginia certifies candidates for the U.S. Senate primary, including Bert Mizusawa

Bert Mizusawa jumps to 16%10%

Certification of Mizusawa as a qualified candidate restored market confidence and increased his odds.

Reports emerge that Mizusawa failed to qualify for the Virginia GOP U.S. Senate primary due to insufficient signatures

Bert Mizusawa drops to 6%5%

News that Mizusawa did not meet signature requirements led to a market trough, reflecting doubts about his ballot access.

Bert Mizusawa announces candidacy for U.S. Senate in Virginia, entering a competitive Republican primary field

Bert Mizusawa plunges to 11%39%

Mizusawa formally joined the race, but with 66% of GOP primary voters undecided, initial market confidence was low, causing a sharp.

Republican Party of Virginia certifies three candidates for U.S. Senate primary ballot, excluding Chuck Smith due to a pending lawsuit over his qualification

Chuck Smith plunges to 34%17%

The party announced Bert Mizusawa, Kim Farrington, and David Williams as certified candidates, while Chuck Smith's ballot access was uncertain pending a lawsuit, causing a significant drop in his market

Reports highlight Farington's campaign focus on government efficiency, small business, and national security, but market confidence wanes amid low name recognition and fundraising

Kim Farington drops to 10%13%

Reports highlight Farington's campaign focus on government efficiency, small business, and national security, but market confidence wanes amid low name recognition and fundraising challenges

Filing deadline approaches, and no major endorsements or fundraising news for Williams emerge, causing market confidence to dip

David Williams drops to 29%10%

Filing deadline approaches, and no major endorsements or fundraising news for Williams emerge, causing market confidence to dip

Other Republican candidates gain media attention, including Kim Farrington and Bert Mizusawa, increasing competition in the primary

David Williams drops to 26%12%

Other Republican candidates gain media attention, including Kim Farrington and Bert Mizusawa, increasing competition in the primary

David Williams officially files to run in the Virginia Republican Senate primary, confirming his candidacy and initial market interest

David Williams drops to 26%11%

David Williams officially files to run in the Virginia Republican Senate primary, confirming his candidacy and initial market interest

Bryce Reeves, a prominent state senator and early Republican contender, drops out of the Virginia Senate race

Al Mina plunges to 26%24%

Reeves' withdrawal consolidated support around other Republican candidates, reducing speculative interest in lesser-known candidates like Al Mina.

Market reacts to the consolidation of the Republican primary field after Reeves' withdrawal, with Farington's chances perceived as diminished amid competition from other

Kim Farington plunges to 18%36%

Market reacts to the consolidation of the Republican primary field after Reeves' withdrawal, with Farington's chances perceived as diminished amid competition from other lesser-known candidates

Virginia State Senator Bryce Reeves, considered the GOP frontrunner, abruptly ends his U.S.

Kim Farington jumps to 37%10%

Senate bid citing family health concerns, leaving the Republican field more open for candidates like Farington

Kim Farington submits ballot petition signatures to the Virginia Department of Elections, confirming her official candidacy and energizing her campaign

Kim Farington surges to 54%34%

Kim Farington submits ballot petition signatures to the Virginia Department of Elections, confirming her official candidacy and energizing her campaign

Incumbent Senator Mark Warner announces his 2026 reelection bid, setting the stage for the primary and general election contests

Kim Farington plunges to 26%24%

Incumbent Senator Mark Warner announces his 2026 reelection bid, setting the stage for the primary and general election contests

Republican Party of Virginia certifies Kim Farington among three candidates for the August 4 Senate primary, officially placing her on the ballot alongside Bert Mizusawa and David

Republican Party of Virginia certifies Kim Farington among three candidates for the August 4 Senate primary, officially placing her on the ballot alongside Bert Mizusawa and David Williams

Final pre‑primary poll shows Winsome Earle‑Sears trailing far behind Democratic opponents in the gubernatorial race, with no indication she will re‑enter the Senate contest,

Final pre‑primary poll shows Winsome Earle‑Sears trailing far behind Democratic opponents in the gubernatorial race, with no indication she will re‑enter the Senate contest, cementing the outcome’s

Republican strategist Karl Rove comments that the Democratic governor’s “bad start” in polls highlights the difficulty for Republicans like Earle‑Sears to gain traction,

Republican strategist Karl Rove comments that the Democratic governor’s “bad start” in polls highlights the difficulty for Republicans like Earle‑Sears to gain traction, reinforcing market sentiment that her Senate prospects are minimal

Winsome Earle‑Sears secures the Republican nomination for governor after her primary opponents fail to meet signature deadlines, confirming she will not be on the Senate primary

Winsome Earle‑Sears dips to 1%2%

Winsome Earle‑Sears secures the Republican nomination for governor after her primary opponents fail to meet signature deadlines, confirming she will not be on the Senate primary ballot

Earle‑Sears’ campaign reports a $3 million cash shortfall and that it has spent more than it raised since April, while rival Abigail Spanberger raises $6.5 million, underscoring a

Winsome Earle‑Sears dips to 3%2%

Earle‑Sears’ campaign reports a $3 million cash shortfall and that it has spent more than it raised since April, while rival Abigail Spanberger raises $6.5 million, underscoring a severe fundraising disadvantage

Former state senator Amanda Chase and former delegate Dave LaRock announce they will run against Winsome Earle‑Sears in the 2025 Republican gubernatorial primary, criticizing her

Winsome Earle‑Sears plunges to 3%47%

Former state senator Amanda Chase and former delegate Dave LaRock announce they will run against Winsome Earle‑Sears in the 2025 Republican gubernatorial primary, criticizing her past comments about former President Trump