Consistent polling dominance drives trader consensus that the Scottish National Party (SNP) will secure the most seats as the largest party in the May 7 Scottish Parliament election, with recent Survation (17-26 April) data showing an 18-point constituency vote lead at 38% versus Reform UK's 20% and Scottish Labour's 18%. MRP models like YouGov project SNP at 67 MSPs—exceeding the 65-seat majority threshold—with 89% probability, amid Labour and Conservative collapses. Campaign momentum under John Swinney reinforces this positioning, though fragmented opposition vote shares limit challenges. Potential shifts remain from late scandals, turnout surges among Reform supporters, or polling volatility in battlegrounds like the North East and Borders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Escocia
Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Escocia
Partido Nacional Escocés 99.3%
Reform UK <1%
Partido Laborista Escocés <1%
Partido Verde Escocés <1%
$1,756,299 Vol.
$1,756,299 Vol.
7 may 2026
Partido Nacional Escocés
99%
Reform UK
<1%
Partido Laborista Escocés
<1%
Partido Verde Escocés
<1%
Partido Soberanía
<1%
Conservadores Escoceses
<1%
Demócratas Liberales Escoceses
<1%
Partido Alba
<1%
Partido Nacional Escocés 99.3%
Reform UK <1%
Partido Laborista Escocés <1%
Partido Verde Escocés <1%
$1,756,299 Vol.
$1,756,299 Vol.
7 may 2026
Partido Nacional Escocés
$1,341,067 Vol.
99%
Reform UK
$99,745 Vol.
<1%
Partido Laborista Escocés
$60,145 Vol.
<1%
Partido Verde Escocés
$55,158 Vol.
<1%
Partido Soberanía
$21,527 Vol.
<1%
Conservadores Escoceses
$21,646 Vol.
<1%
Demócratas Liberales Escoceses
$121,502 Vol.
<1%
Partido Alba
$35,524 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Consistent polling dominance drives trader consensus that the Scottish National Party (SNP) will secure the most seats as the largest party in the May 7 Scottish Parliament election, with recent Survation (17-26 April) data showing an 18-point constituency vote lead at 38% versus Reform UK's 20% and Scottish Labour's 18%. MRP models like YouGov project SNP at 67 MSPs—exceeding the 65-seat majority threshold—with 89% probability, amid Labour and Conservative collapses. Campaign momentum under John Swinney reinforces this positioning, though fragmented opposition vote shares limit challenges. Potential shifts remain from late scandals, turnout surges among Reform supporters, or polling volatility in battlegrounds like the North East and Borders.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ET
Volumen
$1,756,299Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Consistent polling dominance drives trader consensus that the Scottish National Party (SNP) will secure the most seats as the largest party in the May 7 Scottish Parliament election, with recent Survation (17-26 April) data showing an 18-point constituency vote lead at 38% versus Reform UK's 20% and Scottish Labour's 18%. MRP models like YouGov project SNP at 67 MSPs—exceeding the 65-seat majority threshold—with 89% probability, amid Labour and Conservative collapses. Campaign momentum under John Swinney reinforces this positioning, though fragmented opposition vote shares limit challenges. Potential shifts remain from late scandals, turnout surges among Reform supporters, or polling volatility in battlegrounds like the North East and Borders.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Volumen
$1,756,299Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Consistent polling dominance drives trader consensus that the Scottish National Party (SNP) will secure the most seats as the largest party in the May 7 Scottish Parliament election, with recent Survation (17-26 April) data showing an 18-point constituency vote lead at 38% versus Reform UK's 20% and Scottish Labour's 18%. MRP models like YouGov project SNP at 67 MSPs—exceeding the 65-seat majority threshold—with 89% probability, amid Labour and Conservative collapses. Campaign momentum under John Swinney reinforces this positioning, though fragmented opposition vote shares limit challenges. Potential shifts remain from late scandals, turnout surges among Reform supporters, or polling volatility in battlegrounds like the North East and Borders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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