United Russia's 95% implied probability as the State Duma election winner reflects its systemic dominance as the Kremlin-aligned ruling party, bolstered by administrative control, regional machines, and a fragmented opposition in the mixed electoral system of 225 proportional seats and 225 single-mandate districts. Recent polls from VCIOM and FOM in mid-April show ER leading at 28-39%, ahead of New People (6-13%), KPRF (9-11%), and LDPR (10%). In the past week, ER extended primaries registration to May 14 and set 10-14% turnout targets for May 25-31 voting, mobilizing public-sector workers via regional KPIs to test mobilization for the September 18-20 vote. Challenges would require unprecedented scandals, war setbacks, or Putin health issues.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRusia Unida (ER) 95.0%
Gente Nueva (NL) 3.5%
Partido Comunista de la Federación Rusa (KPRF) <1%
Partido Liberal Demócrata de Rusia (LDPR) <1%
$1,211,973 Vol.
$1,211,973 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Rusia Unida (ER)
95%
Gente Nueva (NL)
3%
Partido Comunista de la Federación Rusa (KPRF)
1%
Partido Liberal Demócrata de Rusia (LDPR)
1%
Rusia Justa – Por la Verdad (SRZP)
<1%
Rodina
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
<1%
Rusia Unida (ER) 95.0%
Gente Nueva (NL) 3.5%
Partido Comunista de la Federación Rusa (KPRF) <1%
Partido Liberal Demócrata de Rusia (LDPR) <1%
$1,211,973 Vol.
$1,211,973 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Rusia Unida (ER)
$484,197 Vol.
95%
Gente Nueva (NL)
$65,122 Vol.
3%
Partido Comunista de la Federación Rusa (KPRF)
$88,145 Vol.
1%
Partido Liberal Demócrata de Rusia (LDPR)
$71,272 Vol.
1%
Rusia Justa – Por la Verdad (SRZP)
$215,415 Vol.
<1%
Rodina
$202,542 Vol.
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
$85,280 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's 95% implied probability as the State Duma election winner reflects its systemic dominance as the Kremlin-aligned ruling party, bolstered by administrative control, regional machines, and a fragmented opposition in the mixed electoral system of 225 proportional seats and 225 single-mandate districts. Recent polls from VCIOM and FOM in mid-April show ER leading at 28-39%, ahead of New People (6-13%), KPRF (9-11%), and LDPR (10%). In the past week, ER extended primaries registration to May 14 and set 10-14% turnout targets for May 25-31 voting, mobilizing public-sector workers via regional KPIs to test mobilization for the September 18-20 vote. Challenges would require unprecedented scandals, war setbacks, or Putin health issues.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Mercado abierto: Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
Volumen
$1,211,973Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's 95% implied probability as the State Duma election winner reflects its systemic dominance as the Kremlin-aligned ruling party, bolstered by administrative control, regional machines, and a fragmented opposition in the mixed electoral system of 225 proportional seats and 225 single-mandate districts. Recent polls from VCIOM and FOM in mid-April show ER leading at 28-39%, ahead of New People (6-13%), KPRF (9-11%), and LDPR (10%). In the past week, ER extended primaries registration to May 14 and set 10-14% turnout targets for May 25-31 voting, mobilizing public-sector workers via regional KPIs to test mobilization for the September 18-20 vote. Challenges would require unprecedented scandals, war setbacks, or Putin health issues.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volumen
$1,211,973Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia's 95% implied probability as the State Duma election winner reflects its systemic dominance as the Kremlin-aligned ruling party, bolstered by administrative control, regional machines, and a fragmented opposition in the mixed electoral system of 225 proportional seats and 225 single-mandate districts. Recent polls from VCIOM and FOM in mid-April show ER leading at 28-39%, ahead of New People (6-13%), KPRF (9-11%), and LDPR (10%). In the past week, ER extended primaries registration to May 14 and set 10-14% turnout targets for May 25-31 voting, mobilizing public-sector workers via regional KPIs to test mobilization for the September 18-20 vote. Challenges would require unprecedented scandals, war setbacks, or Putin health issues.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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