Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors under 20mm total precipitation in London for April 2026 at 98.4% implied probability, backed by Met Office observational data from Heathrow Airport—the market's key reference station—showing preliminary totals around 4.6mm, tying for the third-driest April on record over nearly 80 years. This reflects a month dominated by persistent high-pressure systems delivering dry continental air, with only scattered light showers early on from Storm Dave (4-5 April) and minimal subsequent rainfall, as southeast England logged just 24% of climatological averages by mid-month. Nearby stations like NW3 confirm similarly scant 2.3mm totals. Final Met Office verification could theoretically uncover minor unrecorded amounts, but with no precipitation in the final week, exceeding 20mm remains implausible given historical baselines averaging 42-45mm. Watch for official monthly summary in early May.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Precipitaciones en Londres en abril?
¿Precipitaciones en Londres en abril?
<20mm 97.7%
20-30mm 2.7%
30-40mm <1%
60-70mm <1%
$23,157 Vol.
$23,157 Vol.
30 abr 2026
<20mm
98%
20-30mm
3%
30-40mm
1%
40-50mm
1%
50-60mm
<1%
60-70mm
1%
70mm+
<1%
<20mm 97.7%
20-30mm 2.7%
30-40mm <1%
60-70mm <1%
$23,157 Vol.
$23,157 Vol.
30 abr 2026
<20mm
$6,126 Vol.
98%
20-30mm
$2,589 Vol.
3%
30-40mm
$2,379 Vol.
1%
40-50mm
$3,290 Vol.
1%
50-60mm
$4,155 Vol.
<1%
60-70mm
$2,131 Vol.
1%
70mm+
$2,486 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors under 20mm total precipitation in London for April 2026 at 98.4% implied probability, backed by Met Office observational data from Heathrow Airport—the market's key reference station—showing preliminary totals around 4.6mm, tying for the third-driest April on record over nearly 80 years. This reflects a month dominated by persistent high-pressure systems delivering dry continental air, with only scattered light showers early on from Storm Dave (4-5 April) and minimal subsequent rainfall, as southeast England logged just 24% of climatological averages by mid-month. Nearby stations like NW3 confirm similarly scant 2.3mm totals. Final Met Office verification could theoretically uncover minor unrecorded amounts, but with no precipitation in the final week, exceeding 20mm remains implausible given historical baselines averaging 42-45mm. Watch for official monthly summary in early May.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volumen
$23,157Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors under 20mm total precipitation in London for April 2026 at 98.4% implied probability, backed by Met Office observational data from Heathrow Airport—the market's key reference station—showing preliminary totals around 4.6mm, tying for the third-driest April on record over nearly 80 years. This reflects a month dominated by persistent high-pressure systems delivering dry continental air, with only scattered light showers early on from Storm Dave (4-5 April) and minimal subsequent rainfall, as southeast England logged just 24% of climatological averages by mid-month. Nearby stations like NW3 confirm similarly scant 2.3mm totals. Final Met Office verification could theoretically uncover minor unrecorded amounts, but with no precipitation in the final week, exceeding 20mm remains implausible given historical baselines averaging 42-45mm. Watch for official monthly summary in early May.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$23,157Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors under 20mm total precipitation in London for April 2026 at 98.4% implied probability, backed by Met Office observational data from Heathrow Airport—the market's key reference station—showing preliminary totals around 4.6mm, tying for the third-driest April on record over nearly 80 years. This reflects a month dominated by persistent high-pressure systems delivering dry continental air, with only scattered light showers early on from Storm Dave (4-5 April) and minimal subsequent rainfall, as southeast England logged just 24% of climatological averages by mid-month. Nearby stations like NW3 confirm similarly scant 2.3mm totals. Final Met Office verification could theoretically uncover minor unrecorded amounts, but with no precipitation in the final week, exceeding 20mm remains implausible given historical baselines averaging 42-45mm. Watch for official monthly summary in early May.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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