Trader consensus positions Stefany Shaheen as the clear frontrunner at 60% implied probability in the open NH-01 Democratic primary, reflecting her double-digit polling leads—including 33% in the January UNH survey ahead of Heath Howard's 10% and Maura Sullivan's 8%—bolstered by strong name recognition as daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and recent fundraising dominance among Granite State donors announced April 29. Sullivan holds second at 28.5% on prior candidacy experience and overall cash raised exceeding $1.9 million, while Carleigh Beriont and Howard lag amid a fragmented field highlighted at the April 9 candidate forum. With high undecideds in polls, the September 8 primary remains fluid pending further endorsements or shifts in momentum.