Incumbent Mayor Ras Baraka holds a commanding 96.8% implied probability in the May 12, 2026, Newark nonpartisan municipal election, driven by his unchallenged record of achievements including record-low crime rates, replacement of 23,000 lead service lines at no cost to residents, and a 57% homelessness reduction, highlighted in his April 1 rally at NJPAC. Recent endorsements from the New Jersey Working Families Party and the absence of credible challengers among seven minor opponents, as noted post-filing deadline, solidify trader consensus on his path to a fourth term amid low expected turnout. While dominant, scenarios like a late-breaking scandal, unexpectedly high voter turnout favoring a challenger such as Asha Coates-Hamlet, or abrupt local political machine shifts could narrow the gap before election night.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoElecciones a la alcaldía de Newark
Elecciones a la alcaldía de Newark
Ras Baraka 96.8%
Asha Coates-Hamlet 1.7%
Tanisha Garner <1%
Sheila Montague <1%
$21,358 Vol.
$21,358 Vol.
Ras Baraka
97%
Asha Coates-Hamlet
2%
Tanisha Garner
1%
Sheila Montague
<1%
Noble Milton
<1%
Nasheedah Singleton
<1%
Douglas Davis
<1%
Debra Salters
<1%
Jhamar Youngblood
<1%
Louis Shockley
<1%
Ras Baraka 96.8%
Asha Coates-Hamlet 1.7%
Tanisha Garner <1%
Sheila Montague <1%
$21,358 Vol.
$21,358 Vol.
Ras Baraka
97%
Asha Coates-Hamlet
2%
Tanisha Garner
1%
Sheila Montague
<1%
Noble Milton
<1%
Nasheedah Singleton
<1%
Douglas Davis
<1%
Debra Salters
<1%
Jhamar Youngblood
<1%
Louis Shockley
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Newark.
Mercado abierto: Mar 10, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Newark.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Mayor Ras Baraka holds a commanding 96.8% implied probability in the May 12, 2026, Newark nonpartisan municipal election, driven by his unchallenged record of achievements including record-low crime rates, replacement of 23,000 lead service lines at no cost to residents, and a 57% homelessness reduction, highlighted in his April 1 rally at NJPAC. Recent endorsements from the New Jersey Working Families Party and the absence of credible challengers among seven minor opponents, as noted post-filing deadline, solidify trader consensus on his path to a fourth term amid low expected turnout. While dominant, scenarios like a late-breaking scandal, unexpectedly high voter turnout favoring a challenger such as Asha Coates-Hamlet, or abrupt local political machine shifts could narrow the gap before election night.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes