Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a commanding 70% implied probability in the MO-01 Democratic primary market against challenger Cori Bush at 29.5%, reflecting trader confidence in his incumbency advantage after defeating her 53%-46% in the 2024 primary. A February Hit Strategies poll of 401 likely Democratic voters, released mid-April and commissioned by Bush's campaign, showed a statistical tie at Bell 44%, Bush 40% (17% undecided, ±5.4% MOE), with Bush enjoying higher favorability (52%-45%), signaling a tightening rematch amid her criticisms of AIPAC funding that aided Bell previously. Bell recently challenged Bush to a debate series, as both eye the August 4 primary in this St. Louis-anchored district.