Incumbent Rep. Tom Emmer's entrenched position as House Majority Whip, combined with superior fundraising reported April 21, drives trader consensus toward a 76% implied probability for Republican victory in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District. This safely Republican seat, with Emmer holding it since 2015 amid large margins, reinforces the lead despite Democrats' April 25 endorsement of Doug Chapin by 90% in a record-turnout convention. No district-specific polls contradict the odds, reflecting historical base rates of incumbent re-election and partisan lean. Upcoming August 11 primaries could test Emmer against challenger Michael Foley, but traders anticipate minimal disruption to the Republican path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes MN-06
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes MN-06
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
55%
Partido Demócrata
25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$5,670 Vol.
55%
Partido Demócrata
$3,276 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Tom Emmer's entrenched position as House Majority Whip, combined with superior fundraising reported April 21, drives trader consensus toward a 76% implied probability for Republican victory in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District. This safely Republican seat, with Emmer holding it since 2015 amid large margins, reinforces the lead despite Democrats' April 25 endorsement of Doug Chapin by 90% in a record-turnout convention. No district-specific polls contradict the odds, reflecting historical base rates of incumbent re-election and partisan lean. Upcoming August 11 primaries could test Emmer against challenger Michael Foley, but traders anticipate minimal disruption to the Republican path.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$8,946Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Tom Emmer's entrenched position as House Majority Whip, combined with superior fundraising reported April 21, drives trader consensus toward a 76% implied probability for Republican victory in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District. This safely Republican seat, with Emmer holding it since 2015 amid large margins, reinforces the lead despite Democrats' April 25 endorsement of Doug Chapin by 90% in a record-turnout convention. No district-specific polls contradict the odds, reflecting historical base rates of incumbent re-election and partisan lean. Upcoming August 11 primaries could test Emmer against challenger Michael Foley, but traders anticipate minimal disruption to the Republican path.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$8,946Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Tom Emmer's entrenched position as House Majority Whip, combined with superior fundraising reported April 21, drives trader consensus toward a 76% implied probability for Republican victory in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District. This safely Republican seat, with Emmer holding it since 2015 amid large margins, reinforces the lead despite Democrats' April 25 endorsement of Doug Chapin by 90% in a record-turnout convention. No district-specific polls contradict the odds, reflecting historical base rates of incumbent re-election and partisan lean. Upcoming August 11 primaries could test Emmer against challenger Michael Foley, but traders anticipate minimal disruption to the Republican path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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