Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in Tokyo's May 16 lowest temperature, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 15–18°C (25–26%) due to divergent ensemble forecasts from JMA, GFS, and ECMWF models three days out. Mid-May historical lows at Tokyo's official station average 16°C, but spring synoptic variability—driven by transient cold fronts from the north, southerly warm advection, overnight cloud cover, and light winds—creates 3–5°C spreads in model outputs, preventing any outcome from dominating. A slight early warming trend noted in JMA's spring 2026 outlook adds upward pressure on higher bins, though radiative cooling potential keeps cooler scenarios viable. Watch daily JMA updates and new 12-hourly model runs for shifts ahead of resolution based on verified minimum at Haneda or central Tokyo stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 16 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 16 de mayo?
15°C 31%
16°C 24%
17°C 12%
13°C o menos 11.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
13°C o menos
11%
14°C
11%
15°C
31%
16°C
24%
17°C
18%
18°C
5%
19°C
4%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C o más
<1%
15°C 31%
16°C 24%
17°C 12%
13°C o menos 11.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
13°C o menos
$298 Vol.
11%
14°C
$10 Vol.
11%
15°C
$121 Vol.
31%
16°C
$0 Vol.
24%
17°C
$20 Vol.
18%
18°C
$44 Vol.
5%
19°C
$62 Vol.
4%
20°C
$418 Vol.
1%
21°C
$150 Vol.
1%
22°C
$297 Vol.
<1%
23°C o más
$335 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in Tokyo's May 16 lowest temperature, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 15–18°C (25–26%) due to divergent ensemble forecasts from JMA, GFS, and ECMWF models three days out. Mid-May historical lows at Tokyo's official station average 16°C, but spring synoptic variability—driven by transient cold fronts from the north, southerly warm advection, overnight cloud cover, and light winds—creates 3–5°C spreads in model outputs, preventing any outcome from dominating. A slight early warming trend noted in JMA's spring 2026 outlook adds upward pressure on higher bins, though radiative cooling potential keeps cooler scenarios viable. Watch daily JMA updates and new 12-hourly model runs for shifts ahead of resolution based on verified minimum at Haneda or central Tokyo stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$1,755Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in Tokyo's May 16 lowest temperature, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 15–18°C (25–26%) due to divergent ensemble forecasts from JMA, GFS, and ECMWF models three days out. Mid-May historical lows at Tokyo's official station average 16°C, but spring synoptic variability—driven by transient cold fronts from the north, southerly warm advection, overnight cloud cover, and light winds—creates 3–5°C spreads in model outputs, preventing any outcome from dominating. A slight early warming trend noted in JMA's spring 2026 outlook adds upward pressure on higher bins, though radiative cooling potential keeps cooler scenarios viable. Watch daily JMA updates and new 12-hourly model runs for shifts ahead of resolution based on verified minimum at Haneda or central Tokyo stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,755Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in Tokyo's May 16 lowest temperature, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 15–18°C (25–26%) due to divergent ensemble forecasts from JMA, GFS, and ECMWF models three days out. Mid-May historical lows at Tokyo's official station average 16°C, but spring synoptic variability—driven by transient cold fronts from the north, southerly warm advection, overnight cloud cover, and light winds—creates 3–5°C spreads in model outputs, preventing any outcome from dominating. A slight early warming trend noted in JMA's spring 2026 outlook adds upward pressure on higher bins, though radiative cooling potential keeps cooler scenarios viable. Watch daily JMA updates and new 12-hourly model runs for shifts ahead of resolution based on verified minimum at Haneda or central Tokyo stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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