Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a tight race for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 14 at 15°C (38.5%) versus 16°C (31.0%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts amid mild spring conditions with southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Overnight radiational cooling has been moderated by urban heat island effects in central Tokyo and lingering daytime warmth around 24°C on May 13, with early morning observations hovering near 17°C before potential further dip around 5-6 AM JST when minima typically occur. Historical mid-May lows average 15-16°C at official stations like Haneda, but current model ensembles show slight spread due to variable low-level moisture and inversion strength; JMA hourly updates through dawn will clarify the exact integer outcome for market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 14 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 14 de mayo?
15°C 43%
16°C 40%
17°C 15%
18°C 8.9%
$10,938 Vol.
$10,938 Vol.
14 may 2026
13°C o menos
<1%
14°C
3%
15°C
43%
16°C
31%
17°C
15%
18°C
19%
15°C 43%
16°C 40%
17°C 15%
18°C 8.9%
$10,938 Vol.
$10,938 Vol.
14 may 2026
13°C o menos
$1,652 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$493 Vol.
3%
15°C
$378 Vol.
43%
16°C
$424 Vol.
31%
17°C
$594 Vol.
15%
18°C
$1,175 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a tight race for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 14 at 15°C (38.5%) versus 16°C (31.0%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts amid mild spring conditions with southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Overnight radiational cooling has been moderated by urban heat island effects in central Tokyo and lingering daytime warmth around 24°C on May 13, with early morning observations hovering near 17°C before potential further dip around 5-6 AM JST when minima typically occur. Historical mid-May lows average 15-16°C at official stations like Haneda, but current model ensembles show slight spread due to variable low-level moisture and inversion strength; JMA hourly updates through dawn will clarify the exact integer outcome for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$10,938Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a tight race for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 14 at 15°C (38.5%) versus 16°C (31.0%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts amid mild spring conditions with southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Overnight radiational cooling has been moderated by urban heat island effects in central Tokyo and lingering daytime warmth around 24°C on May 13, with early morning observations hovering near 17°C before potential further dip around 5-6 AM JST when minima typically occur. Historical mid-May lows average 15-16°C at official stations like Haneda, but current model ensembles show slight spread due to variable low-level moisture and inversion strength; JMA hourly updates through dawn will clarify the exact integer outcome for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$10,938Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a tight race for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 14 at 15°C (38.5%) versus 16°C (31.0%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts amid mild spring conditions with southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Overnight radiational cooling has been moderated by urban heat island effects in central Tokyo and lingering daytime warmth around 24°C on May 13, with early morning observations hovering near 17°C before potential further dip around 5-6 AM JST when minima typically occur. Historical mid-May lows average 15-16°C at official stations like Haneda, but current model ensembles show slight spread due to variable low-level moisture and inversion strength; JMA hourly updates through dawn will clarify the exact integer outcome for market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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