Incumbent Rep. Ron Estes (R) filed for re-election in late January to Kansas' 4th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a partisan voting index leaning R+13, where he secured 65% of the vote against Democrat Esau Freeman in 2024. Trader consensus at 84% for the Republican Party reflects this entrenched GOP advantage, bolstered by early fundraising leads and no credible primary challengers as the June 1 filing deadline nears. Democrat Katy Tyndell's March candidacy announcement has drawn limited attention, underscoring the district's historical resistance to Democratic gains. Primaries on August 4 and the November 3 general election remain key dates, though structural factors favor Republican retention.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoKS-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
KS-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$30,880 Vol.
$30,880 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
83%
Partido Demócrata
14%
$30,880 Vol.
$30,880 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$18,545 Vol.
83%
Partido Demócrata
$12,336 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Ron Estes (R) filed for re-election in late January to Kansas' 4th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a partisan voting index leaning R+13, where he secured 65% of the vote against Democrat Esau Freeman in 2024. Trader consensus at 84% for the Republican Party reflects this entrenched GOP advantage, bolstered by early fundraising leads and no credible primary challengers as the June 1 filing deadline nears. Democrat Katy Tyndell's March candidacy announcement has drawn limited attention, underscoring the district's historical resistance to Democratic gains. Primaries on August 4 and the November 3 general election remain key dates, though structural factors favor Republican retention.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$30,880Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Ron Estes (R) filed for re-election in late January to Kansas' 4th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a partisan voting index leaning R+13, where he secured 65% of the vote against Democrat Esau Freeman in 2024. Trader consensus at 84% for the Republican Party reflects this entrenched GOP advantage, bolstered by early fundraising leads and no credible primary challengers as the June 1 filing deadline nears. Democrat Katy Tyndell's March candidacy announcement has drawn limited attention, underscoring the district's historical resistance to Democratic gains. Primaries on August 4 and the November 3 general election remain key dates, though structural factors favor Republican retention.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$30,880Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Ron Estes (R) filed for re-election in late January to Kansas' 4th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a partisan voting index leaning R+13, where he secured 65% of the vote against Democrat Esau Freeman in 2024. Trader consensus at 84% for the Republican Party reflects this entrenched GOP advantage, bolstered by early fundraising leads and no credible primary challengers as the June 1 filing deadline nears. Democrat Katy Tyndell's March candidacy announcement has drawn limited attention, underscoring the district's historical resistance to Democratic gains. Primaries on August 4 and the November 3 general election remain key dates, though structural factors favor Republican retention.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes