Trader consensus favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes from April 27 to May 3 at 72.5% implied probability, reflecting USGS data showing none recorded through April 30 despite four days elapsed. Global seismicity rates, per USGS long-term catalogs, average roughly 45-50 such events annually—about 0.9 per week under a Poisson distribution—yielding low baseline odds for multiple in any seven-day window, further boosted here by a quiet period following the April 20 M7.4 off Miyako, Japan. No active fault swarms, volcanic unrest, or anomalous foreshocks signal heightened risk, with recent monitoring showing only M5+ events like Papua New Guinea's M5.7 on April 30. USGS real-time catalog updates through May 3 could shift odds if preliminary magnitudes finalize at 6.5+.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
0 71%
1 24%
2 7%
3 1.3%
$23,324 Vol.
$23,324 Vol.
3 may 2026
0
71%
1
24%
2
7%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 71%
1 24%
2 7%
3 1.3%
$23,324 Vol.
$23,324 Vol.
3 may 2026
0
$8,703 Vol.
71%
1
$2,505 Vol.
24%
2
$2,043 Vol.
7%
3
$1,064 Vol.
1%
4
$2,285 Vol.
<1%
5
$2,711 Vol.
<1%
>5
$4,013 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes from April 27 to May 3 at 72.5% implied probability, reflecting USGS data showing none recorded through April 30 despite four days elapsed. Global seismicity rates, per USGS long-term catalogs, average roughly 45-50 such events annually—about 0.9 per week under a Poisson distribution—yielding low baseline odds for multiple in any seven-day window, further boosted here by a quiet period following the April 20 M7.4 off Miyako, Japan. No active fault swarms, volcanic unrest, or anomalous foreshocks signal heightened risk, with recent monitoring showing only M5+ events like Papua New Guinea's M5.7 on April 30. USGS real-time catalog updates through May 3 could shift odds if preliminary magnitudes finalize at 6.5+.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Volumen
$23,324Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes from April 27 to May 3 at 72.5% implied probability, reflecting USGS data showing none recorded through April 30 despite four days elapsed. Global seismicity rates, per USGS long-term catalogs, average roughly 45-50 such events annually—about 0.9 per week under a Poisson distribution—yielding low baseline odds for multiple in any seven-day window, further boosted here by a quiet period following the April 20 M7.4 off Miyako, Japan. No active fault swarms, volcanic unrest, or anomalous foreshocks signal heightened risk, with recent monitoring showing only M5+ events like Papua New Guinea's M5.7 on April 30. USGS real-time catalog updates through May 3 could shift odds if preliminary magnitudes finalize at 6.5+.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$23,324Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes from April 27 to May 3 at 72.5% implied probability, reflecting USGS data showing none recorded through April 30 despite four days elapsed. Global seismicity rates, per USGS long-term catalogs, average roughly 45-50 such events annually—about 0.9 per week under a Poisson distribution—yielding low baseline odds for multiple in any seven-day window, further boosted here by a quiet period following the April 20 M7.4 off Miyako, Japan. No active fault swarms, volcanic unrest, or anomalous foreshocks signal heightened risk, with recent monitoring showing only M5+ events like Papua New Guinea's M5.7 on April 30. USGS real-time catalog updates through May 3 could shift odds if preliminary magnitudes finalize at 6.5+.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes