Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching 32°C or higher on May 14, driven by the Israel Meteorological Service forecast of a 32°C peak amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean, which promotes atmospheric subsidence and intense solar heating under clear skies. Global models like ECMWF and GFS converge on 30–32°C maxima, aligning with recent observations following May 12's heat and a brief cooldown on May 13, while a national heatwave advisory underscores the unseasonal warmth exceeding May's climatological average of 26°C. Realistic challenges include a stronger sea breeze from the Mediterranean introducing cooler marine air or unforecast clouds capping peaks at 31°C, with final resolution hinging on NOAA measurements at Ben Gurion Airport by day's end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 14?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 14?
32°C or higher 95.2%
31°C 3.6%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$26,100 Vol.
$26,100 Vol.
14 may 2026
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
4%
32°C or higher
95%
32°C or higher 95.2%
31°C 3.6%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$26,100 Vol.
$26,100 Vol.
14 may 2026
27°C
$4,707 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$3,711 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$3,587 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$3,284 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$3,435 Vol.
4%
32°C or higher
$2,644 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching 32°C or higher on May 14, driven by the Israel Meteorological Service forecast of a 32°C peak amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean, which promotes atmospheric subsidence and intense solar heating under clear skies. Global models like ECMWF and GFS converge on 30–32°C maxima, aligning with recent observations following May 12's heat and a brief cooldown on May 13, while a national heatwave advisory underscores the unseasonal warmth exceeding May's climatological average of 26°C. Realistic challenges include a stronger sea breeze from the Mediterranean introducing cooler marine air or unforecast clouds capping peaks at 31°C, with final resolution hinging on NOAA measurements at Ben Gurion Airport by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2026, 12:48 AM ET
Volumen
$26,100Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 12:48 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching 32°C or higher on May 14, driven by the Israel Meteorological Service forecast of a 32°C peak amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean, which promotes atmospheric subsidence and intense solar heating under clear skies. Global models like ECMWF and GFS converge on 30–32°C maxima, aligning with recent observations following May 12's heat and a brief cooldown on May 13, while a national heatwave advisory underscores the unseasonal warmth exceeding May's climatological average of 26°C. Realistic challenges include a stronger sea breeze from the Mediterranean introducing cooler marine air or unforecast clouds capping peaks at 31°C, with final resolution hinging on NOAA measurements at Ben Gurion Airport by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$26,100Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 12:48 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching 32°C or higher on May 14, driven by the Israel Meteorological Service forecast of a 32°C peak amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean, which promotes atmospheric subsidence and intense solar heating under clear skies. Global models like ECMWF and GFS converge on 30–32°C maxima, aligning with recent observations following May 12's heat and a brief cooldown on May 13, while a national heatwave advisory underscores the unseasonal warmth exceeding May's climatological average of 26°C. Realistic challenges include a stronger sea breeze from the Mediterranean introducing cooler marine air or unforecast clouds capping peaks at 31°C, with final resolution hinging on NOAA measurements at Ben Gurion Airport by day's end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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