Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Tokyo's May 16 high temperature, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 20-21% for 24-26°C outcomes, aligning with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles projecting peaks in this range amid above-normal spring warmth. Recent observations show Tokyo highs 2-3°C above the mid-May climatological average of 23°C, fueled by persistent upper-level ridging and southerly winds advecting warmer air from the Pacific, but divergent model runs highlight risks: clearer skies could push toward 26-27°C via enhanced solar heating, while increasing cloudiness or sea breeze intensification might cap at 23-24°C. Extremes like 28°C+ remain unlikely (<5%) given pre-rainy season patterns; watch JMA's next advisory for refined guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
26°C 36%
25°C 20%
27°C 17%
24°C 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
6%
24°C
16%
25°C
27%
26°C
36%
27°C
17%
28°C or higher
11%
26°C 36%
25°C 20%
27°C 17%
24°C 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
18°C or below
$7 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$311 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$67 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$67 Vol.
1%
22°C
$145 Vol.
2%
23°C
$90 Vol.
6%
24°C
$1 Vol.
16%
25°C
$189 Vol.
27%
26°C
$20 Vol.
36%
27°C
$19 Vol.
17%
28°C or higher
$85 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Tokyo's May 16 high temperature, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 20-21% for 24-26°C outcomes, aligning with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles projecting peaks in this range amid above-normal spring warmth. Recent observations show Tokyo highs 2-3°C above the mid-May climatological average of 23°C, fueled by persistent upper-level ridging and southerly winds advecting warmer air from the Pacific, but divergent model runs highlight risks: clearer skies could push toward 26-27°C via enhanced solar heating, while increasing cloudiness or sea breeze intensification might cap at 23-24°C. Extremes like 28°C+ remain unlikely (<5%) given pre-rainy season patterns; watch JMA's next advisory for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
Volumen
$990Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Tokyo's May 16 high temperature, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 20-21% for 24-26°C outcomes, aligning with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles projecting peaks in this range amid above-normal spring warmth. Recent observations show Tokyo highs 2-3°C above the mid-May climatological average of 23°C, fueled by persistent upper-level ridging and southerly winds advecting warmer air from the Pacific, but divergent model runs highlight risks: clearer skies could push toward 26-27°C via enhanced solar heating, while increasing cloudiness or sea breeze intensification might cap at 23-24°C. Extremes like 28°C+ remain unlikely (<5%) given pre-rainy season patterns; watch JMA's next advisory for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$990Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Tokyo's May 16 high temperature, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 20-21% for 24-26°C outcomes, aligning with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles projecting peaks in this range amid above-normal spring warmth. Recent observations show Tokyo highs 2-3°C above the mid-May climatological average of 23°C, fueled by persistent upper-level ridging and southerly winds advecting warmer air from the Pacific, but divergent model runs highlight risks: clearer skies could push toward 26-27°C via enhanced solar heating, while increasing cloudiness or sea breeze intensification might cap at 23-24°C. Extremes like 28°C+ remain unlikely (<5%) given pre-rainy season patterns; watch JMA's next advisory for refined guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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