Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters implied probabilities tightly around 18–20°C for Moscow's highest temperature on May 16, mirroring Roshydromet medium-range forecasts showing daytime highs of 19–21°C under continued southerly flow. Recent surface observations confirm spring variability, with yesterday's (May 13) peak near 22°C from warm air advection, contrasting May 9's cooler 12°C amid overcast skies and frontal passages—highlighting sensitivity to cloud cover and boundary layer conditions. Mid-May climatology averages 17–19°C, with ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS showing minor spread from differing mixing forecasts. Updated runs due Friday could shift odds as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on May 16?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 16?
18°C 24%
19°C 24%
20°C 24%
21°C 14%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
24%
19°C
24%
20°C
24%
21°C
14%
22°C
7%
23°C or higher
12%
18°C 24%
19°C 24%
20°C 24%
21°C 14%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
13°C or below
$30 Vol.
1%
14°C
$15 Vol.
1%
15°C
$15 Vol.
1%
16°C
$15 Vol.
1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
3%
18°C
$0 Vol.
24%
19°C
$0 Vol.
24%
20°C
$0 Vol.
24%
21°C
$0 Vol.
14%
22°C
$0 Vol.
7%
23°C or higher
$327 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters implied probabilities tightly around 18–20°C for Moscow's highest temperature on May 16, mirroring Roshydromet medium-range forecasts showing daytime highs of 19–21°C under continued southerly flow. Recent surface observations confirm spring variability, with yesterday's (May 13) peak near 22°C from warm air advection, contrasting May 9's cooler 12°C amid overcast skies and frontal passages—highlighting sensitivity to cloud cover and boundary layer conditions. Mid-May climatology averages 17–19°C, with ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS showing minor spread from differing mixing forecasts. Updated runs due Friday could shift odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
Volumen
$402Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters implied probabilities tightly around 18–20°C for Moscow's highest temperature on May 16, mirroring Roshydromet medium-range forecasts showing daytime highs of 19–21°C under continued southerly flow. Recent surface observations confirm spring variability, with yesterday's (May 13) peak near 22°C from warm air advection, contrasting May 9's cooler 12°C amid overcast skies and frontal passages—highlighting sensitivity to cloud cover and boundary layer conditions. Mid-May climatology averages 17–19°C, with ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS showing minor spread from differing mixing forecasts. Updated runs due Friday could shift odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$402Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters implied probabilities tightly around 18–20°C for Moscow's highest temperature on May 16, mirroring Roshydromet medium-range forecasts showing daytime highs of 19–21°C under continued southerly flow. Recent surface observations confirm spring variability, with yesterday's (May 13) peak near 22°C from warm air advection, contrasting May 9's cooler 12°C amid overcast skies and frontal passages—highlighting sensitivity to cloud cover and boundary layer conditions. Mid-May climatology averages 17–19°C, with ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS showing minor spread from differing mixing forecasts. Updated runs due Friday could shift odds as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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