Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Moscow high of 20°C at 34% implied probability for May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecast model consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center projecting daytime peaks near 19–21°C amid a warming trend. Recent cool, rainy conditions through May 11–12, with highs around 15°C, have given way to sunnier skies and southerly flows boosting temperatures 3–5°C above mid-May climatological norms of 18°C. High uncertainty stems from model spread over cloud cover, potential isolated thunderstorms, and exact timing of any precipitation, which could suppress peaks to 18°C or allow 22°C+ under clearer conditions; watch afternoon updates from official agencies for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on May 15?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 15?
20°C 35%
19°C 21%
21°C 20%
18°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 may 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
11%
19°C
21%
20°C
35%
21°C
20%
22°C
9%
23°C
5%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
1%
20°C 35%
19°C 21%
21°C 20%
18°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 may 2026
16°C or below
$669 Vol.
1%
17°C
$162 Vol.
2%
18°C
$418 Vol.
11%
19°C
$234 Vol.
21%
20°C
$181 Vol.
35%
21°C
$1,170 Vol.
20%
22°C
$1,877 Vol.
9%
23°C
$849 Vol.
5%
24°C
$796 Vol.
1%
25°C
$840 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$1,536 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Moscow high of 20°C at 34% implied probability for May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecast model consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center projecting daytime peaks near 19–21°C amid a warming trend. Recent cool, rainy conditions through May 11–12, with highs around 15°C, have given way to sunnier skies and southerly flows boosting temperatures 3–5°C above mid-May climatological norms of 18°C. High uncertainty stems from model spread over cloud cover, potential isolated thunderstorms, and exact timing of any precipitation, which could suppress peaks to 18°C or allow 22°C+ under clearer conditions; watch afternoon updates from official agencies for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ET
Volumen
$8,732Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Moscow high of 20°C at 34% implied probability for May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecast model consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center projecting daytime peaks near 19–21°C amid a warming trend. Recent cool, rainy conditions through May 11–12, with highs around 15°C, have given way to sunnier skies and southerly flows boosting temperatures 3–5°C above mid-May climatological norms of 18°C. High uncertainty stems from model spread over cloud cover, potential isolated thunderstorms, and exact timing of any precipitation, which could suppress peaks to 18°C or allow 22°C+ under clearer conditions; watch afternoon updates from official agencies for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$8,732Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Moscow high of 20°C at 34% implied probability for May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecast model consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center projecting daytime peaks near 19–21°C amid a warming trend. Recent cool, rainy conditions through May 11–12, with highs around 15°C, have given way to sunnier skies and southerly flows boosting temperatures 3–5°C above mid-May climatological norms of 18°C. High uncertainty stems from model spread over cloud cover, potential isolated thunderstorms, and exact timing of any precipitation, which could suppress peaks to 18°C or allow 22°C+ under clearer conditions; watch afternoon updates from official agencies for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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