Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 70-71°F (39.5% implied probability) and 72°F or higher (36.0%), reflecting inherent uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), where the market resolves based on official observed high temperature. A persistent marine heatwave off the California coast, documented in April 2026 observations, has thinned the typical May marine layer—stratus clouds and cool onshore flow that often cap coastal highs around 68-70°F—potentially allowing earlier burn-off and midday peaks near 72°F under building high pressure aloft. Current clear skies and morning temperatures near 66°F support model consensus (GFS, ECMWF ensembles) clustering around 70-72°F, with 68-69°F viable if sea breeze strengthens. Watch hourly observations through afternoon for resolution-defining solar heating and wind shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Los Angeles on May 1?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 1?
70-71°F 40%
68-69°F 35%
72°F or higher 19%
66-67°F 8.2%
$19,982 Vol.
$19,982 Vol.
1 may 2026
53°F or below
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
8%
68-69°F
35%
70-71°F
40%
72°F or higher
19%
70-71°F 40%
68-69°F 35%
72°F or higher 19%
66-67°F 8.2%
$19,982 Vol.
$19,982 Vol.
1 may 2026
53°F or below
$123 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$122 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$863 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$479 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$3,551 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$2,933 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$2,196 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$3,082 Vol.
8%
68-69°F
$1,765 Vol.
35%
70-71°F
$1,568 Vol.
40%
72°F or higher
$3,305 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 70-71°F (39.5% implied probability) and 72°F or higher (36.0%), reflecting inherent uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), where the market resolves based on official observed high temperature. A persistent marine heatwave off the California coast, documented in April 2026 observations, has thinned the typical May marine layer—stratus clouds and cool onshore flow that often cap coastal highs around 68-70°F—potentially allowing earlier burn-off and midday peaks near 72°F under building high pressure aloft. Current clear skies and morning temperatures near 66°F support model consensus (GFS, ECMWF ensembles) clustering around 70-72°F, with 68-69°F viable if sea breeze strengthens. Watch hourly observations through afternoon for resolution-defining solar heating and wind shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:36 AM ET
Volumen
$19,982Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:36 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 70-71°F (39.5% implied probability) and 72°F or higher (36.0%), reflecting inherent uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), where the market resolves based on official observed high temperature. A persistent marine heatwave off the California coast, documented in April 2026 observations, has thinned the typical May marine layer—stratus clouds and cool onshore flow that often cap coastal highs around 68-70°F—potentially allowing earlier burn-off and midday peaks near 72°F under building high pressure aloft. Current clear skies and morning temperatures near 66°F support model consensus (GFS, ECMWF ensembles) clustering around 70-72°F, with 68-69°F viable if sea breeze strengthens. Watch hourly observations through afternoon for resolution-defining solar heating and wind shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$19,982Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:36 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 70-71°F (39.5% implied probability) and 72°F or higher (36.0%), reflecting inherent uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), where the market resolves based on official observed high temperature. A persistent marine heatwave off the California coast, documented in April 2026 observations, has thinned the typical May marine layer—stratus clouds and cool onshore flow that often cap coastal highs around 68-70°F—potentially allowing earlier burn-off and midday peaks near 72°F under building high pressure aloft. Current clear skies and morning temperatures near 66°F support model consensus (GFS, ECMWF ensembles) clustering around 70-72°F, with 68-69°F viable if sea breeze strengthens. Watch hourly observations through afternoon for resolution-defining solar heating and wind shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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