Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92% for HI-02 due to incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's dominant position, underscored by her $592,000 cash on hand versus Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa's $23,000 as of late March 2026 filings reported in mid-April. The district's D+12 Cook PVI, Tokuda's consistent 62-66% general election margins in 2022 and 2024, and uniform Solid/Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report reinforce this edge amid Hawaii's Democratic voter registration advantage. With the June 2 filing deadline approaching and August 8 primary ahead, realistic challenges would require heavy GOP super PAC intervention, a national Republican midterm surge, or unforeseen issues for Tokuda.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHI-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
HI-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$54,494 Vol.
$54,494 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
91%
Partido Republicano
8%
$54,494 Vol.
$54,494 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$45,416 Vol.
91%
Partido Republicano
$9,077 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92% for HI-02 due to incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's dominant position, underscored by her $592,000 cash on hand versus Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa's $23,000 as of late March 2026 filings reported in mid-April. The district's D+12 Cook PVI, Tokuda's consistent 62-66% general election margins in 2022 and 2024, and uniform Solid/Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report reinforce this edge amid Hawaii's Democratic voter registration advantage. With the June 2 filing deadline approaching and August 8 primary ahead, realistic challenges would require heavy GOP super PAC intervention, a national Republican midterm surge, or unforeseen issues for Tokuda.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$54,494Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92% for HI-02 due to incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's dominant position, underscored by her $592,000 cash on hand versus Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa's $23,000 as of late March 2026 filings reported in mid-April. The district's D+12 Cook PVI, Tokuda's consistent 62-66% general election margins in 2022 and 2024, and uniform Solid/Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report reinforce this edge amid Hawaii's Democratic voter registration advantage. With the June 2 filing deadline approaching and August 8 primary ahead, realistic challenges would require heavy GOP super PAC intervention, a national Republican midterm surge, or unforeseen issues for Tokuda.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$54,494Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92% for HI-02 due to incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's dominant position, underscored by her $592,000 cash on hand versus Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa's $23,000 as of late March 2026 filings reported in mid-April. The district's D+12 Cook PVI, Tokuda's consistent 62-66% general election margins in 2022 and 2024, and uniform Solid/Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report reinforce this edge amid Hawaii's Democratic voter registration advantage. With the June 2 filing deadline approaching and August 8 primary ahead, realistic challenges would require heavy GOP super PAC intervention, a national Republican midterm surge, or unforeseen issues for Tokuda.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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