Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the August 18, 2026, Florida Republican Senate primary as the appointed incumbent seeking to finish Marco Rubio’s term. Governor Ron DeSantis selected her after Rubio’s resignation to become secretary of state, building on her two prior statewide victories as attorney general and alignment with the state’s Republican establishment. Minor challengers including Chris Gleason, Neelam Taneja Perry, and Ernie Rivera have filed, while several others remain off the ballot, but none have mounted visible statewide campaigns or secured notable endorsements or funding. With the filing deadline passed and roughly two months until voting, trader consensus reflected in the current pricing shows limited room for upset absent major developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event, or late external intervention before the primary.