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Política·Primarias

FL-09 Ganador de las primarias republicanas

icon for FL-09 Ganador de las primarias republicanas
Política·Primarias

FL-09 Ganador de las primarias republicanas

Justin Story 48%

Thomas Chalifoux 32%

Marcus Carter 8%

Jorge Malavet 7%

Polymarket

$10,737 Vol.

Justin Story 48%

Thomas Chalifoux 32%

Marcus Carter 8%

Jorge Malavet 7%

Polymarket

$10,737 Vol.

Justin Story

$7,589 Vol.

48%

Thomas Chalifoux

$902 Vol.

32%

Marcus Carter

$289 Vol.

8%

Jorge Malavet

$1,957 Vol.

7%

Howard Steven Rance

$0 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Thomas Chalifoux leads trader consensus at 38.5% implied probability in the FL-09 Republican primary due to his dominant fundraising—over $1.5 million cash on hand as of late April—name recognition from winning the 2024 GOP nomination, and self-funding history against incumbent Democrat Darren Soto. Justin Story follows at 26%, buoyed by his retired Marine Corps officer and commercial pilot background amid modest raises, while Jorge Malavet, Marcus Carter, and Howard Steven Rance trail below 8% in a fragmented five-way field lacking public polls. Florida's April 29 legislative approval of Gov. Ron DeSantis's redistricting map, redrawing FL-09 more favorably for Republicans among four targeted Democratic seats, heightens stakes ahead of the June 12 filing deadline and August 18 primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$10,737
Fecha de finalización
18 ago 2026
Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Thomas Chalifoux leads trader consensus at 38.5% implied probability in the FL-09 Republican primary due to his dominant fundraising—over $1.5 million cash on hand as of late April—name recognition from winning the 2024 GOP nomination, and self-funding history against incumbent Democrat Darren Soto. Justin Story follows at 26%, buoyed by his retired Marine Corps officer and commercial pilot background amid modest raises, while Jorge Malavet, Marcus Carter, and Howard Steven Rance trail below 8% in a fragmented five-way field lacking public polls. Florida's April 29 legislative approval of Gov. Ron DeSantis's redistricting map, redrawing FL-09 more favorably for Republicans among four targeted Democratic seats, heightens stakes ahead of the June 12 filing deadline and August 18 primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$10,737
Fecha de finalización
18 ago 2026
Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"FL-09 Ganador de las primarias republicanas" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 5 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Justin Story" con 48%, seguido de "Thomas Chalifoux" con 32%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 48¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 48% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "FL-09 Ganador de las primarias republicanas" ha generado $10.7K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 23, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "FL-09 Ganador de las primarias republicanas", explora los 5 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "FL-09 Ganador de las primarias republicanas" es "Justin Story" con 48%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 48% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Thomas Chalifoux" con 32%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "FL-09 Ganador de las primarias republicanas" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.