**Abelardo de la Espriella's first-round victory on May 31, 2026, with 43.7% of the vote to Iván Cepeda Castro's 40.9% drives the market's strong consensus on his win.** Official certification by Colombia's electoral authorities and Cepeda's subsequent acceptance of the results on June 7 have solidified this outcome, reflecting de la Espriella's rapid late surge through hardline security messaging, social media outreach, evangelical support, and consolidation of right-leaning voters after Paloma Valencia finished third. The election proceeded peacefully with international observers describing the process as transparent, despite pre-vote tensions and initial disputes. With the runoff now set for June 21 and current polls showing de la Espriella ahead, traders assign minimal probability to reversals. Only an unprecedented recount or legal challenge could alter the first-round margin assessment before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoColombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
de la Espriella Win 98.8%
Cepeda Castro 20%+ 1.3%
Valencia Win <1%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% <1%
$131,821 Vol.
$131,821 Vol.
31 may 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
1%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
<1%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
<1%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
<1%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
1%
de la Espriella Win
99%
Valencia Win
1%
Other
<1%
de la Espriella Win 98.8%
Cepeda Castro 20%+ 1.3%
Valencia Win <1%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% <1%
$131,821 Vol.
$131,821 Vol.
31 may 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
$26,485 Vol.
1%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
$12,488 Vol.
<1%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
$18,674 Vol.
<1%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
$11,455 Vol.
<1%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
$19,969 Vol.
1%
de la Espriella Win
$24,581 Vol.
99%
Valencia Win
$8,943 Vol.
1%
Other
$9,226 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**Abelardo de la Espriella's first-round victory on May 31, 2026, with 43.7% of the vote to Iván Cepeda Castro's 40.9% drives the market's strong consensus on his win.** Official certification by Colombia's electoral authorities and Cepeda's subsequent acceptance of the results on June 7 have solidified this outcome, reflecting de la Espriella's rapid late surge through hardline security messaging, social media outreach, evangelical support, and consolidation of right-leaning voters after Paloma Valencia finished third. The election proceeded peacefully with international observers describing the process as transparent, despite pre-vote tensions and initial disputes. With the runoff now set for June 21 and current polls showing de la Espriella ahead, traders assign minimal probability to reversals. Only an unprecedented recount or legal challenge could alter the first-round margin assessment before resolution.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado abierto: Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$131,821Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**Abelardo de la Espriella's first-round victory on May 31, 2026, with 43.7% of the vote to Iván Cepeda Castro's 40.9% drives the market's strong consensus on his win.** Official certification by Colombia's electoral authorities and Cepeda's subsequent acceptance of the results on June 7 have solidified this outcome, reflecting de la Espriella's rapid late surge through hardline security messaging, social media outreach, evangelical support, and consolidation of right-leaning voters after Paloma Valencia finished third. The election proceeded peacefully with international observers describing the process as transparent, despite pre-vote tensions and initial disputes. With the runoff now set for June 21 and current polls showing de la Espriella ahead, traders assign minimal probability to reversals. Only an unprecedented recount or legal challenge could alter the first-round margin assessment before resolution.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$131,821Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Abelardo de la Espriella's first-round victory on May 31, 2026, with 43.7% of the vote to Iván Cepeda Castro's 40.9% drives the market's strong consensus on his win.** Official certification by Colombia's electoral authorities and Cepeda's subsequent acceptance of the results on June 7 have solidified this outcome, reflecting de la Espriella's rapid late surge through hardline security messaging, social media outreach, evangelical support, and consolidation of right-leaning voters after Paloma Valencia finished third. The election proceeded peacefully with international observers describing the process as transparent, despite pre-vote tensions and initial disputes. With the runoff now set for June 21 and current polls showing de la Espriella ahead, traders assign minimal probability to reversals. Only an unprecedented recount or legal challenge could alter the first-round margin assessment before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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