The first-round results on May 31, with Abelardo de la Espriella at 43.7% and Iván Cepeda Castro at 40.9%, established a narrow 2.8-point gap that has anchored trader expectations for a competitive June 21 runoff. Center-right consolidation behind de la Espriella’s security platform has lifted his implied win probability, yet runoff polling remains mixed and turnout dynamics among undecided and coastal voters continue to limit separation. Polarization between de la Espriella’s tough-on-crime stance and Cepeda’s continuation of the outgoing administration’s agenda, combined with the absence of a decisive polling shift since the first round, sustains elevated probabilities on narrow victory margins while keeping larger spreads and outright upsets priced as lower-probability outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSegunda vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales en Colombia: margen de victoria
Segunda vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales en Colombia: margen de victoria
de la Espriella 5-10% 42%
de la Espriella 10-15% 41%
Victoria de Cepeda Castro 40%
de la Espriella 0-5% 38%
NUEVO
NUEVO
22 jun 2026
de la Espriella 15%+
25%
de la Espriella 10-15%
41%
de la Espriella 5-10%
42%
de la Espriella 0-5%
38%
Victoria de Cepeda Castro
40%
de la Espriella 5-10% 42%
de la Espriella 10-15% 41%
Victoria de Cepeda Castro 40%
de la Espriella 0-5% 38%
NUEVO
NUEVO
22 jun 2026
de la Espriella 15%+
$20 Vol.
25%
de la Espriella 10-15%
$20 Vol.
41%
de la Espriella 5-10%
$20 Vol.
42%
de la Espriella 0-5%
$20 Vol.
38%
Victoria de Cepeda Castro
$20 Vol.
40%
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The first-round results on May 31, with Abelardo de la Espriella at 43.7% and Iván Cepeda Castro at 40.9%, established a narrow 2.8-point gap that has anchored trader expectations for a competitive June 21 runoff. Center-right consolidation behind de la Espriella’s security platform has lifted his implied win probability, yet runoff polling remains mixed and turnout dynamics among undecided and coastal voters continue to limit separation. Polarization between de la Espriella’s tough-on-crime stance and Cepeda’s continuation of the outgoing administration’s agenda, combined with the absence of a decisive polling shift since the first round, sustains elevated probabilities on narrow victory margins while keeping larger spreads and outright upsets priced as lower-probability outcomes.
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado abierto: Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
22 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The first-round results on May 31, with Abelardo de la Espriella at 43.7% and Iván Cepeda Castro at 40.9%, established a narrow 2.8-point gap that has anchored trader expectations for a competitive June 21 runoff. Center-right consolidation behind de la Espriella’s security platform has lifted his implied win probability, yet runoff polling remains mixed and turnout dynamics among undecided and coastal voters continue to limit separation. Polarization between de la Espriella’s tough-on-crime stance and Cepeda’s continuation of the outgoing administration’s agenda, combined with the absence of a decisive polling shift since the first round, sustains elevated probabilities on narrow victory margins while keeping larger spreads and outright upsets priced as lower-probability outcomes.
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
22 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The first-round results on May 31, with Abelardo de la Espriella at 43.7% and Iván Cepeda Castro at 40.9%, established a narrow 2.8-point gap that has anchored trader expectations for a competitive June 21 runoff. Center-right consolidation behind de la Espriella’s security platform has lifted his implied win probability, yet runoff polling remains mixed and turnout dynamics among undecided and coastal voters continue to limit separation. Polarization between de la Espriella’s tough-on-crime stance and Cepeda’s continuation of the outgoing administration’s agenda, combined with the absence of a decisive polling shift since the first round, sustains elevated probabilities on narrow victory margins while keeping larger spreads and outright upsets priced as lower-probability outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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