In California's newly redrawn 38th Congressional District—an open Solid Democratic seat with a Cook PVI of D+8 following Proposition 50—trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at over 90% implied probability, reflecting the district's LA suburbs like El Monte and Pico Rivera, consistent Democratic dominance in past elections, and superior fundraising where frontrunner Hilda Solis leads with $1.1 million cash on hand after securing the state Democratic Party and Congressional Progressive Caucus endorsements. The June 2 top-two primary features four Democrats including Solis, Monica Sanchez, and Erik Lutz against lone Republican Pedro Casas, likely yielding a Democrat-Democrat general on November 4. No major developments in the past 30 days, but late March campaign launches and intra-Democratic jockeying underscore Solis's edge; realistic challenges include a GOP primary upset, nominee scandal, or national midterm wave boosting Republican turnout in battleground areas like northern Orange County fringes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-38 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-38 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$56,411 Vol.
$56,411 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
93%
Partido Republicano
5%
$56,411 Vol.
$56,411 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$28,776 Vol.
93%
Partido Republicano
$27,635 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In California's newly redrawn 38th Congressional District—an open Solid Democratic seat with a Cook PVI of D+8 following Proposition 50—trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at over 90% implied probability, reflecting the district's LA suburbs like El Monte and Pico Rivera, consistent Democratic dominance in past elections, and superior fundraising where frontrunner Hilda Solis leads with $1.1 million cash on hand after securing the state Democratic Party and Congressional Progressive Caucus endorsements. The June 2 top-two primary features four Democrats including Solis, Monica Sanchez, and Erik Lutz against lone Republican Pedro Casas, likely yielding a Democrat-Democrat general on November 4. No major developments in the past 30 days, but late March campaign launches and intra-Democratic jockeying underscore Solis's edge; realistic challenges include a GOP primary upset, nominee scandal, or national midterm wave boosting Republican turnout in battleground areas like northern Orange County fringes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$56,411Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In California's newly redrawn 38th Congressional District—an open Solid Democratic seat with a Cook PVI of D+8 following Proposition 50—trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at over 90% implied probability, reflecting the district's LA suburbs like El Monte and Pico Rivera, consistent Democratic dominance in past elections, and superior fundraising where frontrunner Hilda Solis leads with $1.1 million cash on hand after securing the state Democratic Party and Congressional Progressive Caucus endorsements. The June 2 top-two primary features four Democrats including Solis, Monica Sanchez, and Erik Lutz against lone Republican Pedro Casas, likely yielding a Democrat-Democrat general on November 4. No major developments in the past 30 days, but late March campaign launches and intra-Democratic jockeying underscore Solis's edge; realistic challenges include a GOP primary upset, nominee scandal, or national midterm wave boosting Republican turnout in battleground areas like northern Orange County fringes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$56,411Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In California's newly redrawn 38th Congressional District—an open Solid Democratic seat with a Cook PVI of D+8 following Proposition 50—trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at over 90% implied probability, reflecting the district's LA suburbs like El Monte and Pico Rivera, consistent Democratic dominance in past elections, and superior fundraising where frontrunner Hilda Solis leads with $1.1 million cash on hand after securing the state Democratic Party and Congressional Progressive Caucus endorsements. The June 2 top-two primary features four Democrats including Solis, Monica Sanchez, and Erik Lutz against lone Republican Pedro Casas, likely yielding a Democrat-Democrat general on November 4. No major developments in the past 30 days, but late March campaign launches and intra-Democratic jockeying underscore Solis's edge; realistic challenges include a GOP primary upset, nominee scandal, or national midterm wave boosting Republican turnout in battleground areas like northern Orange County fringes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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