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Mundo·Elecciones Globales

Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria

icon for Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria
Mundo·Elecciones Globales

Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria

Lula da Silva <5% 33%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 27%

Lula da Silva 5-10% 19%

Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+ 9.8%

Polymarket

$227,604 Vol.

Lula da Silva <5% 33%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 27%

Lula da Silva 5-10% 19%

Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+ 9.8%

Polymarket

$227,604 Vol.

icon for Lula da Silva 15%+

Lula da Silva 15%+

$4,345 Vol.

9%

icon for Lula da Silva 10-15%

Lula da Silva 10-15%

$2,300 Vol.

10%

icon for Lula da Silva 5-10%

Lula da Silva 5-10%

$6,683 Vol.

23%

icon for Lula da Silva <5%

Lula da Silva <5%

$2,770 Vol.

33%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+

Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+

$1,470 Vol.

10%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%

$1,812 Vol.

8%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

$3,554 Vol.

27%

icon for Victoria de Renan Santos

Victoria de Renan Santos

$199,801 Vol.

5%

icon for Victoria de Tarcisio de Freitas

Victoria de Tarcisio de Freitas

$1,090 Vol.

1%

icon for Victoria de Ratinho Júnior

Victoria de Ratinho Júnior

$1,679 Vol.

4%

icon for Otro

Otro

$2,101 Vol.

9%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel/Bloomberg polling from April 22-27 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 46.6% to 39.7% in first-round scenarios, a 6.9-point margin, while a simulated runoff is statistically tied at 47.5% Lula versus 47.8% Bolsonaro, underscoring the closely contested race ahead of the October 4 first round. Similar leads of 5-9 points appear in late-April Nexus and mid-April Quaest surveys, with low support for alternatives like Ronaldo Caiado or Renan Santos fragmenting the right-wing vote. Lula's incumbency provides a polling edge amid economic recovery signals, but Bolsonaro's momentum from his father's December endorsement and youth appeal keeps margins tight; Flávio's April 15 defamation probe adds uncertainty. Debates and regional turnout in swing Northeast and South could widen gaps.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$227,604
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel/Bloomberg polling from April 22-27 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 46.6% to 39.7% in first-round scenarios, a 6.9-point margin, while a simulated runoff is statistically tied at 47.5% Lula versus 47.8% Bolsonaro, underscoring the closely contested race ahead of the October 4 first round. Similar leads of 5-9 points appear in late-April Nexus and mid-April Quaest surveys, with low support for alternatives like Ronaldo Caiado or Renan Santos fragmenting the right-wing vote. Lula's incumbency provides a polling edge amid economic recovery signals, but Bolsonaro's momentum from his father's December endorsement and youth appeal keeps margins tight; Flávio's April 15 defamation probe adds uncertainty. Debates and regional turnout in swing Northeast and South could widen gaps.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$227,604
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Lula da Silva <5%" con 33%, seguido de "Flávio Bolsonaro <5%" con 27%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 33¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 33% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria" ha generado $227.6K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 11, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria" es "Lula da Silva <5%" con 33%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 33% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Flávio Bolsonaro <5%" con 27%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.