Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.5% implied probability of no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its June 10 meeting, driven by the central bank's April 29 decision to hold steady at 2.25%—its fourth consecutive pause—despite March 2026 CPI accelerating to 2.4% year-over-year on surging energy costs from Middle East tensions. The Monetary Policy Report projects inflation easing back toward the 2% target in 2027 amid moderate GDP growth adjusting to U.S. tariffs, supporting this strong positioning amid balanced labor market conditions. Realistic challenges include sustained oil price spikes prompting a hike or weakening employment data signaling a cut, with April CPI due May 19 as a key catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoBank of Canada decision in June?
Bank of Canada decision in June?
No change 94%
Increase 6.8%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$15,031 Vol.
$15,031 Vol.
10 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
94%
Increase
7%
No change 94%
Increase 6.8%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$15,031 Vol.
$15,031 Vol.
10 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,884 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,491 Vol.
1%
No change
$6,387 Vol.
94%
Increase
$4,268 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.5% implied probability of no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its June 10 meeting, driven by the central bank's April 29 decision to hold steady at 2.25%—its fourth consecutive pause—despite March 2026 CPI accelerating to 2.4% year-over-year on surging energy costs from Middle East tensions. The Monetary Policy Report projects inflation easing back toward the 2% target in 2027 amid moderate GDP growth adjusting to U.S. tariffs, supporting this strong positioning amid balanced labor market conditions. Realistic challenges include sustained oil price spikes prompting a hike or weakening employment data signaling a cut, with April CPI due May 19 as a key catalyst.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Volumen
$15,031Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.5% implied probability of no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its June 10 meeting, driven by the central bank's April 29 decision to hold steady at 2.25%—its fourth consecutive pause—despite March 2026 CPI accelerating to 2.4% year-over-year on surging energy costs from Middle East tensions. The Monetary Policy Report projects inflation easing back toward the 2% target in 2027 amid moderate GDP growth adjusting to U.S. tariffs, supporting this strong positioning amid balanced labor market conditions. Realistic challenges include sustained oil price spikes prompting a hike or weakening employment data signaling a cut, with April CPI due May 19 as a key catalyst.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$15,031Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.5% implied probability of no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its June 10 meeting, driven by the central bank's April 29 decision to hold steady at 2.25%—its fourth consecutive pause—despite March 2026 CPI accelerating to 2.4% year-over-year on surging energy costs from Middle East tensions. The Monetary Policy Report projects inflation easing back toward the 2% target in 2027 amid moderate GDP growth adjusting to U.S. tariffs, supporting this strong positioning amid balanced labor market conditions. Realistic challenges include sustained oil price spikes prompting a hike or weakening employment data signaling a cut, with April CPI due May 19 as a key catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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