Polymarket traders assign a 95% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its June 2026 meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the central bank's April 29 decision to hold the overnight target steady at 2.25% for a fourth consecutive time amid heightened uncertainty from Middle East-driven oil price surges. Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.4% in March—up from 1.8% in February—due to gasoline costs, but core measures stabilized near 2%, while the April Monetary Policy Report forecasts moderate GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026 adjusting to U.S. tariffs. This data-dependent stance anchors expectations, though sharper inflation persistence could prompt hikes or labor market weakness trigger 25 basis point cuts, challenging the hold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoBank of Canada decision in June?
Bank of Canada decision in June?
No change 95%
Increase 2.6%
25 bps decrease 2.5%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$17,144 Vol.
$17,144 Vol.
10 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
2%
No change
95%
Increase
3%
No change 95%
Increase 2.6%
25 bps decrease 2.5%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$17,144 Vol.
$17,144 Vol.
10 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,504 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,993 Vol.
2%
No change
$7,406 Vol.
95%
Increase
$4,241 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 95% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its June 2026 meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the central bank's April 29 decision to hold the overnight target steady at 2.25% for a fourth consecutive time amid heightened uncertainty from Middle East-driven oil price surges. Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.4% in March—up from 1.8% in February—due to gasoline costs, but core measures stabilized near 2%, while the April Monetary Policy Report forecasts moderate GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026 adjusting to U.S. tariffs. This data-dependent stance anchors expectations, though sharper inflation persistence could prompt hikes or labor market weakness trigger 25 basis point cuts, challenging the hold.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Volumen
$17,144Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 95% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its June 2026 meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the central bank's April 29 decision to hold the overnight target steady at 2.25% for a fourth consecutive time amid heightened uncertainty from Middle East-driven oil price surges. Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.4% in March—up from 1.8% in February—due to gasoline costs, but core measures stabilized near 2%, while the April Monetary Policy Report forecasts moderate GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026 adjusting to U.S. tariffs. This data-dependent stance anchors expectations, though sharper inflation persistence could prompt hikes or labor market weakness trigger 25 basis point cuts, challenging the hold.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$17,144Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 95% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its June 2026 meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the central bank's April 29 decision to hold the overnight target steady at 2.25% for a fourth consecutive time amid heightened uncertainty from Middle East-driven oil price surges. Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.4% in March—up from 1.8% in February—due to gasoline costs, but core measures stabilized near 2%, while the April Monetary Policy Report forecasts moderate GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026 adjusting to U.S. tariffs. This data-dependent stance anchors expectations, though sharper inflation persistence could prompt hikes or labor market weakness trigger 25 basis point cuts, challenging the hold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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