U.S. intelligence assessments, including the ODNI’s March 2026 threat report, conclude that Chinese leaders lack plans or a fixed timeline for invading Taiwan in 2027 or sooner, favoring sustained gray-zone coercion such as air defense identification zone incursions, coast guard patrols, and diplomatic pressure ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 election cycle. Traders price near-certain “No” resolution by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of amphibious buildup, command readiness, or leadership signals consistent with imminent large-scale action. Ongoing military drills remain calibrated below invasion thresholds, while economic and political tools continue to narrow Taipei’s options without crossing into kinetic conflict. Realistic shifts could still arise from rapid leadership decisions, major U.S. policy changes, or miscalculation during heightened exercises, though current evidence points to continuity through the resolution window.