Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by escalating military tensions and stalled diplomatic efforts amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As of late April 2026, Iran threatened "long and painful strikes" on US positions if attacks resume, while ceasefire talks in Pakistan derailed over disagreements on nuclear issues and maritime access, leaving relations in a "no war, no peace" limbo. Recent US security alerts urged Americans to depart Iran after partial airspace reopening on April 21, underscoring persistent risks. Though Switzerland and Spain announced embassy reopenings in Tehran as intermediaries, no US normalization signals exist, with the embassy shuttered since 1979 hostage crisis and sanctions intact. Potential shifts hinge on breakthroughs in ongoing negotiations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?
¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?
Sí
$74,791 Vol.
$74,791 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$74,791 Vol.
$74,791 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by escalating military tensions and stalled diplomatic efforts amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As of late April 2026, Iran threatened "long and painful strikes" on US positions if attacks resume, while ceasefire talks in Pakistan derailed over disagreements on nuclear issues and maritime access, leaving relations in a "no war, no peace" limbo. Recent US security alerts urged Americans to depart Iran after partial airspace reopening on April 21, underscoring persistent risks. Though Switzerland and Spain announced embassy reopenings in Tehran as intermediaries, no US normalization signals exist, with the embassy shuttered since 1979 hostage crisis and sanctions intact. Potential shifts hinge on breakthroughs in ongoing negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Volumen
$74,791Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by escalating military tensions and stalled diplomatic efforts amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As of late April 2026, Iran threatened "long and painful strikes" on US positions if attacks resume, while ceasefire talks in Pakistan derailed over disagreements on nuclear issues and maritime access, leaving relations in a "no war, no peace" limbo. Recent US security alerts urged Americans to depart Iran after partial airspace reopening on April 21, underscoring persistent risks. Though Switzerland and Spain announced embassy reopenings in Tehran as intermediaries, no US normalization signals exist, with the embassy shuttered since 1979 hostage crisis and sanctions intact. Potential shifts hinge on breakthroughs in ongoing negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$74,791Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by escalating military tensions and stalled diplomatic efforts amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As of late April 2026, Iran threatened "long and painful strikes" on US positions if attacks resume, while ceasefire talks in Pakistan derailed over disagreements on nuclear issues and maritime access, leaving relations in a "no war, no peace" limbo. Recent US security alerts urged Americans to depart Iran after partial airspace reopening on April 21, underscoring persistent risks. Though Switzerland and Spain announced embassy reopenings in Tehran as intermediaries, no US normalization signals exist, with the embassy shuttered since 1979 hostage crisis and sanctions intact. Potential shifts hinge on breakthroughs in ongoing negotiations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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