Strong consensus for a 25 basis point hike in the Bank of Japan’s policy rate to 1.0% at the June 15-16 meeting reflects elevated inflation risks from higher fuel costs amid Middle East tensions, resilient first-quarter GDP, and yen weakness prompting faster normalization. Recent Reuters polling shows 94% of economists now expect the uncollateralized overnight call rate to rise from 0.75%, consistent with Governor Ueda’s hawkish communications and marking the first increase since December 2025. Market-implied odds align with this skin-in-the-game trader view of gradual tightening. A sharp escalation in geopolitical risks or softer-than-expected data releases could still support a pause, though such outcomes carry low implied probability ahead of the decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAumento de 25 puntos básicos 99.2%
Sin cambios <1%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
Reducir tasas <1%
$583,273 Vol.
$583,273 Vol.
Reducir tasas
<1%
Sin cambios
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
99%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 99.2%
Sin cambios <1%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
Reducir tasas <1%
$583,273 Vol.
$583,273 Vol.
Reducir tasas
<1%
Sin cambios
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
99%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong consensus for a 25 basis point hike in the Bank of Japan’s policy rate to 1.0% at the June 15-16 meeting reflects elevated inflation risks from higher fuel costs amid Middle East tensions, resilient first-quarter GDP, and yen weakness prompting faster normalization. Recent Reuters polling shows 94% of economists now expect the uncollateralized overnight call rate to rise from 0.75%, consistent with Governor Ueda’s hawkish communications and marking the first increase since December 2025. Market-implied odds align with this skin-in-the-game trader view of gradual tightening. A sharp escalation in geopolitical risks or softer-than-expected data releases could still support a pause, though such outcomes carry low implied probability ahead of the decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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