**Strong trader consensus for no change at the Bank of Japan's July 30-31 meeting reflects the market's firm expectation of a 25 basis point hike to 1.0% at the June 15-16 policy meeting.** Recent data, including resilient first-quarter GDP growth and persistent inflation pressures with core forecasts near 2.4% for fiscal 2026, combined with yen weakness amplifying import costs, have driven the BOJ toward normalizing policy from the current 0.75% level. Reuters polls show economists overwhelmingly anticipating the June move, followed by a likely pause before any further tightening in the fourth quarter. The July decision's 93% implied probability of unchanged rates therefore prices in this sequencing, with traders viewing the post-hike period as one for data assessment. Realistic challenges to this positioning include hotter-than-expected inflation prints or accelerated yen depreciation that could prompt an earlier second hike, while a sharp escalation in global risks or downside growth surprises might delay further action.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo change 94%
25 bps increase 7%
50+ bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 jul 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
94%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 94%
25 bps increase 7%
50+ bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 jul 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,385 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$1,456 Vol.
<1%
No change
$1,106 Vol.
94%
25 bps increase
$1,529 Vol.
7%
50+ bps increase
$1,135 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Strong trader consensus for no change at the Bank of Japan's July 30-31 meeting reflects the market's firm expectation of a 25 basis point hike to 1.0% at the June 15-16 policy meeting.** Recent data, including resilient first-quarter GDP growth and persistent inflation pressures with core forecasts near 2.4% for fiscal 2026, combined with yen weakness amplifying import costs, have driven the BOJ toward normalizing policy from the current 0.75% level. Reuters polls show economists overwhelmingly anticipating the June move, followed by a likely pause before any further tightening in the fourth quarter. The July decision's 93% implied probability of unchanged rates therefore prices in this sequencing, with traders viewing the post-hike period as one for data assessment.
Realistic challenges to this positioning include hotter-than-expected inflation prints or accelerated yen depreciation that could prompt an earlier second hike, while a sharp escalation in global risks or downside growth surprises might delay further action.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volumen
$6,611Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Strong trader consensus for no change at the Bank of Japan's July 30-31 meeting reflects the market's firm expectation of a 25 basis point hike to 1.0% at the June 15-16 policy meeting.** Recent data, including resilient first-quarter GDP growth and persistent inflation pressures with core forecasts near 2.4% for fiscal 2026, combined with yen weakness amplifying import costs, have driven the BOJ toward normalizing policy from the current 0.75% level. Reuters polls show economists overwhelmingly anticipating the June move, followed by a likely pause before any further tightening in the fourth quarter. The July decision's 93% implied probability of unchanged rates therefore prices in this sequencing, with traders viewing the post-hike period as one for data assessment.
Realistic challenges to this positioning include hotter-than-expected inflation prints or accelerated yen depreciation that could prompt an earlier second hike, while a sharp escalation in global risks or downside growth surprises might delay further action.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$6,611Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong trader consensus for no change at the Bank of Japan's July 30-31 meeting reflects the market's firm expectation of a 25 basis point hike to 1.0% at the June 15-16 policy meeting.** Recent data, including resilient first-quarter GDP growth and persistent inflation pressures with core forecasts near 2.4% for fiscal 2026, combined with yen weakness amplifying import costs, have driven the BOJ toward normalizing policy from the current 0.75% level. Reuters polls show economists overwhelmingly anticipating the June move, followed by a likely pause before any further tightening in the fourth quarter. The July decision's 93% implied probability of unchanged rates therefore prices in this sequencing, with traders viewing the post-hike period as one for data assessment. Realistic challenges to this positioning include hotter-than-expected inflation prints or accelerated yen depreciation that could prompt an earlier second hike, while a sharp escalation in global risks or downside growth surprises might delay further action.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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