Polymarket traders have priced a razor-thin split between no change (45%) and a 25 basis point Official Cash Rate (OCR) hike (44.5%) for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's July 8 review, reflecting sticky inflation against softening growth signals. The March 2026 quarter CPI held at 3.1% annually—above the 1-3% target midpoint and consensus forecasts—driven by oil shocks from Middle East tensions, as flagged in the RBNZ's April 8 hold at 2.25%. Rising unemployment to 5.4% in Q4 2025 and tepid 0.2% GDP growth provide counterbalance, creating uncertainty. The May 27 Monetary Policy Statement offers pivotal forward guidance, with Q1 GDP and labor data as key swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoReserve Bank of New Zealand decision in July?
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in July?
Increase 45%
No Change 41%
Decrease 6.5%
Increase
45%
No Change
41%
Decrease
7%
Increase 45%
No Change 41%
Decrease 6.5%
Increase
45%
No Change
41%
Decrease
7%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Apr 8, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders have priced a razor-thin split between no change (45%) and a 25 basis point Official Cash Rate (OCR) hike (44.5%) for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's July 8 review, reflecting sticky inflation against softening growth signals. The March 2026 quarter CPI held at 3.1% annually—above the 1-3% target midpoint and consensus forecasts—driven by oil shocks from Middle East tensions, as flagged in the RBNZ's April 8 hold at 2.25%. Rising unemployment to 5.4% in Q4 2025 and tepid 0.2% GDP growth provide counterbalance, creating uncertainty. The May 27 Monetary Policy Statement offers pivotal forward guidance, with Q1 GDP and labor data as key swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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