Trader consensus prices a 55.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, driven by the April 29 phone call between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin, where a temporary truce for the World War II victory anniversary was discussed but yielded no commitment amid ongoing military escalation. Ukrainian long-range strikes continue targeting Russian oil refineries, as in the April 28 Tuapse attack, while Russia launched massive drone and missile barrages, per Institute for the Study of War assessments through April 29. The mid-April Orthodox Easter 32-hour truce expired without progress toward permanent de-escalation, underscoring irreconcilable demands—Ukraine's insistence on territorial integrity versus Russia's control of occupied lands—in a protracted stalemate with slow Russian advances. No major diplomatic breakthroughs in recent Geneva talks have materialized, leaving traders skeptical of resolution within the 14-month window despite potential short-term pauses.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Un alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania para el 30 de junio de 2027?
¿Un alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania para el 30 de junio de 2027?
Sí
$54,857 Vol.
$54,857 Vol.
30 jun 2027
Sí
$54,857 Vol.
$54,857 Vol.
30 jun 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a 55.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, driven by the April 29 phone call between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin, where a temporary truce for the World War II victory anniversary was discussed but yielded no commitment amid ongoing military escalation. Ukrainian long-range strikes continue targeting Russian oil refineries, as in the April 28 Tuapse attack, while Russia launched massive drone and missile barrages, per Institute for the Study of War assessments through April 29. The mid-April Orthodox Easter 32-hour truce expired without progress toward permanent de-escalation, underscoring irreconcilable demands—Ukraine's insistence on territorial integrity versus Russia's control of occupied lands—in a protracted stalemate with slow Russian advances. No major diplomatic breakthroughs in recent Geneva talks have materialized, leaving traders skeptical of resolution within the 14-month window despite potential short-term pauses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
Volumen
$54,857Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a 55.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, driven by the April 29 phone call between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin, where a temporary truce for the World War II victory anniversary was discussed but yielded no commitment amid ongoing military escalation. Ukrainian long-range strikes continue targeting Russian oil refineries, as in the April 28 Tuapse attack, while Russia launched massive drone and missile barrages, per Institute for the Study of War assessments through April 29. The mid-April Orthodox Easter 32-hour truce expired without progress toward permanent de-escalation, underscoring irreconcilable demands—Ukraine's insistence on territorial integrity versus Russia's control of occupied lands—in a protracted stalemate with slow Russian advances. No major diplomatic breakthroughs in recent Geneva talks have materialized, leaving traders skeptical of resolution within the 14-month window despite potential short-term pauses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$54,857Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 55.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, driven by the April 29 phone call between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin, where a temporary truce for the World War II victory anniversary was discussed but yielded no commitment amid ongoing military escalation. Ukrainian long-range strikes continue targeting Russian oil refineries, as in the April 28 Tuapse attack, while Russia launched massive drone and missile barrages, per Institute for the Study of War assessments through April 29. The mid-April Orthodox Easter 32-hour truce expired without progress toward permanent de-escalation, underscoring irreconcilable demands—Ukraine's insistence on territorial integrity versus Russia's control of occupied lands—in a protracted stalemate with slow Russian advances. No major diplomatic breakthroughs in recent Geneva talks have materialized, leaving traders skeptical of resolution within the 14-month window despite potential short-term pauses.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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