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icon for ¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2027?

¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2027?

icon for ¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2027?

¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2027?

18% probabilidad
Polymarket

$395,755 Vol.

18% probabilidad
Polymarket

$395,755 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China's foreign minister Wang Yi warned U.S. Senator Marco Rubio on April 30 that the Taiwan issue represents the biggest risk to bilateral ties, emphasizing Beijing's core interests without announcing escalatory moves. Taiwan raised alerts after detecting two Chinese warships near its strategic Penghu islands on April 27, amid Beijing's routine military activities in the Taiwan Strait, which it deems justified responses to perceived independence provocations. U.S. senators reassured Taipei on forthcoming arms approvals April 16, while pressing for a comprehensive defense budget, bolstering deterrence alongside Philippines-Japan drills. The Iran war strains U.S. contingency plans for Taiwan defense, yet traders reflect an 82% "No" consensus on invasion by December 31, 2027, citing amphibious assault barriers, PLA coordination issues from recent purges, and absent major buildup signals despite gray-zone pressures. A Trump-Xi summit, with Taiwan topping Beijing's agenda, looms as a potential influencer.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$395,755
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027
Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China's foreign minister Wang Yi warned U.S. Senator Marco Rubio on April 30 that the Taiwan issue represents the biggest risk to bilateral ties, emphasizing Beijing's core interests without announcing escalatory moves. Taiwan raised alerts after detecting two Chinese warships near its strategic Penghu islands on April 27, amid Beijing's routine military activities in the Taiwan Strait, which it deems justified responses to perceived independence provocations. U.S. senators reassured Taipei on forthcoming arms approvals April 16, while pressing for a comprehensive defense budget, bolstering deterrence alongside Philippines-Japan drills. The Iran war strains U.S. contingency plans for Taiwan defense, yet traders reflect an 82% "No" consensus on invasion by December 31, 2027, citing amphibious assault barriers, PLA coordination issues from recent purges, and absent major buildup signals despite gray-zone pressures. A Trump-Xi summit, with Taiwan topping Beijing's agenda, looms as a potential influencer.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$395,755
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027
Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Invadirá China Taiwán antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027?" con 18%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 18¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 18% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2027?" ha generado $395.8K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 17, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2027?" es "¿Invadirá China Taiwán antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027?" con 18%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 18% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 31 de diciembre de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.