The Bank of Russia’s June 19 key rate decision carries a 90.5% market-implied probability of a cut from the current 14.50% level, reflecting sustained disinflation and the central bank’s baseline forecast for an average 14.0–14.5% key rate in 2026. Annual inflation has moderated to 5.3% as of May 2026, with underlying price growth stabilizing near 4–5% annualized after one-off factors like the earlier VAT hike faded, while domestic demand aligns more closely with supply capacity. The CBR’s communications after the April 50-basis-point reduction highlighted easing inflation expectations and room for further measured easing in the ongoing cycle that began from the 21% peak. A hold or hike would require pre-meeting data to show renewed inflationary momentum from fiscal stimulus, external shocks, or labor-market tightness outpacing supply gains.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Decisión del Banco de Rusia en junio?
Decrease 92%
No Change 8%
Increase <1%
$96,081 Vol.
$96,081 Vol.
Decrease
92%
No Change
8%
Increase
<1%
Decrease 92%
No Change 8%
Increase <1%
$96,081 Vol.
$96,081 Vol.
Decrease
92%
No Change
8%
Increase
<1%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Russia’s June 19 key rate decision carries a 90.5% market-implied probability of a cut from the current 14.50% level, reflecting sustained disinflation and the central bank’s baseline forecast for an average 14.0–14.5% key rate in 2026. Annual inflation has moderated to 5.3% as of May 2026, with underlying price growth stabilizing near 4–5% annualized after one-off factors like the earlier VAT hike faded, while domestic demand aligns more closely with supply capacity. The CBR’s communications after the April 50-basis-point reduction highlighted easing inflation expectations and room for further measured easing in the ongoing cycle that began from the 21% peak. A hold or hike would require pre-meeting data to show renewed inflationary momentum from fiscal stimulus, external shocks, or labor-market tightness outpacing supply gains.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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