The Bank of Russia’s June 19 key rate decision carries a 90.5% market-implied probability of a cut from the current 14.50% level, reflecting sustained disinflation and the central bank’s baseline forecast for an average 14.0–14.5% key rate in 2026. Annual inflation has moderated to 5.3% as of May 2026, with underlying price growth stabilizing near 4–5% annualized after one-off factors like the earlier VAT hike faded, while domestic demand aligns more closely with supply capacity. The CBR’s communications after the April 50-basis-point reduction highlighted easing inflation expectations and room for further measured easing in the ongoing cycle that began from the 21% peak. A hold or hike would require pre-meeting data to show renewed inflationary momentum from fiscal stimulus, external shocks, or labor-market tightness outpacing supply gains.