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Mundo·Oriente Medio

¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?

icon for ¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?
Mundo·Oriente Medio

¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 59.7%

Reza Pahlavi 9%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 4.5%

Sin Jefe de Estado 2.5%

Polymarket

$7,040,982 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 59.7%

Reza Pahlavi 9%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 4.5%

Sin Jefe de Estado 2.5%

Polymarket

$7,040,982 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$1,714,047 Vol.

60%

Reza Pahlavi

$166,846 Vol.

9%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$181,329 Vol.

5%

Sin Jefe de Estado

$376,105 Vol.

3%

Mahmoud Ahmadineyad

$54,268 Vol.

2%

Ahmad Vahidi

$207,046 Vol.

2%

Hassan Rouhani

$283,228 Vol.

1%

Abbas Araghchi

$111,031 Vol.

1%

Maryam Rajavi

$261,425 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$789,050 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$746,321 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$264,993 Vol.

1%

Mohammad Khatami

$399,865 Vol.

1%

Massoud Rajavi

$30,277 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$180,911 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$280,891 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$162,283 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$38,865 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$56,804 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$76,475 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$51,849 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$78,412 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$36,043 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$25,110 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$53,657 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$39,386 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$50,527 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$38,544 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$18,770 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$30,215 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, Iran's Assembly of Experts appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as Supreme Leader in early March, reflecting regime continuity and IRGC backing that drives his 59.5% trader consensus for holding the post through year-end. Recent April reports of Mojtaba's severe injuries from subsequent attacks, including disfiguring wounds and limited public appearances, alongside IRGC commanders reportedly controlling key decisions, have fueled uncertainty and elevated exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi to 8.5% amid war escalation and protests. Other clerical contenders lag due to lack of momentum in the opaque succession process, with no major shifts in the past week.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$7,040,982
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, Iran's Assembly of Experts appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as Supreme Leader in early March, reflecting regime continuity and IRGC backing that drives his 59.5% trader consensus for holding the post through year-end. Recent April reports of Mojtaba's severe injuries from subsequent attacks, including disfiguring wounds and limited public appearances, alongside IRGC commanders reportedly controlling key decisions, have fueled uncertainty and elevated exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi to 8.5% amid war escalation and protests. Other clerical contenders lag due to lack of momentum in the opaque succession process, with no major shifts in the past week.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$7,040,982
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 32 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Mojtaba Khamenei" con 60%, seguido de "Reza Pahlavi" con 9%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 60¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 60% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" ha generado $7 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 1, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?", explora los 32 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" es "Mojtaba Khamenei" con 60%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 60% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Reza Pahlavi" con 9%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.