Mojtaba Khamenei’s 79% implied probability reflects his March 2026 election by the Assembly of Experts as supreme leader following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes. IRGC and Basij backing, combined with swift clerical consolidation during the ensuing wartime transition, positioned him ahead of other hardline clerics despite traditional reservations over hereditary succession. Ongoing regional conflict has reinforced regime institutions and limited openings for rivals such as Reza Pahlavi or reformist figures. Traders price in continuity risks from further escalation or elite fractures yet assign low odds to rapid leadership shifts before year-end, consistent with historical patterns of clerical and security-apparatus dominance after leadership vacuums.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei 79.3%
Reza Pahlavi 5%
Sin Jefe de Estado 2.6%
Abbas Araghchi 2.3%
$15,182,255 Vol.
$15,182,255 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
79%
Reza Pahlavi
5%
Sin Jefe de Estado
3%
Abbas Araghchi
2%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Alireza Arafi
1%
Ali Motahari
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Mahmoud Ahmadineyad
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Ahmad Vahidi
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 79.3%
Reza Pahlavi 5%
Sin Jefe de Estado 2.6%
Abbas Araghchi 2.3%
$15,182,255 Vol.
$15,182,255 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
79%
Reza Pahlavi
5%
Sin Jefe de Estado
3%
Abbas Araghchi
2%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Alireza Arafi
1%
Ali Motahari
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Mahmoud Ahmadineyad
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Ahmad Vahidi
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Mercado abierto: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei’s 79% implied probability reflects his March 2026 election by the Assembly of Experts as supreme leader following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes. IRGC and Basij backing, combined with swift clerical consolidation during the ensuing wartime transition, positioned him ahead of other hardline clerics despite traditional reservations over hereditary succession. Ongoing regional conflict has reinforced regime institutions and limited openings for rivals such as Reza Pahlavi or reformist figures. Traders price in continuity risks from further escalation or elite fractures yet assign low odds to rapid leadership shifts before year-end, consistent with historical patterns of clerical and security-apparatus dominance after leadership vacuums.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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