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Mundo·Oriente Medio

¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?

icon for ¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?
Mundo·Oriente Medio

¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 79.3%

Reza Pahlavi 5%

Sin Jefe de Estado 2.6%

Abbas Araghchi 2.3%

Polymarket

$15,044,419 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 79.3%

Reza Pahlavi 5%

Sin Jefe de Estado 2.6%

Abbas Araghchi 2.3%

Polymarket

$15,044,419 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$2,674,324 Vol.

79%

Reza Pahlavi

$290,418 Vol.

5%

Sin Jefe de Estado

$840,094 Vol.

3%

Abbas Araghchi

$555,791 Vol.

2%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$497,725 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,136,075 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$612,211 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$1,938,109 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$667,331 Vol.

1%

Ali Motahari

$162,668 Vol.

1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$339,789 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$319,265 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadineyad

$448,585 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$200,416 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$637,131 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$452,958 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$234,152 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$148,966 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$79,129 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$130,746 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$69,181 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$317,247 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$144,970 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$135,646 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$123,153 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$676,254 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$460,061 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$175,578 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$98,907 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$275,610 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei leads the market at 79.3% because the Assembly of Experts formally selected him in March 2026 to succeed his father, Ali Khamenei, after the latter's assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes that opened the current conflict. This rapid, IRGC-backed transition by the clerical body aligned with Mojtaba's established ties to security institutions and conservative networks, despite traditional resistance to hereditary succession. Reza Pahlavi and other listed figures trail due to limited domestic institutional support and the regime's continuity preference amid wartime pressures. Recent factors include Mojtaba's limited public appearances since appointment, raising questions about his health and operational role, alongside ongoing military developments that could affect leadership stability through year-end. Trader consensus reflects the institutional process already completed while acknowledging potential shifts from conflict escalation or internal maneuvering.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$15,044,419
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei leads the market at 79.3% because the Assembly of Experts formally selected him in March 2026 to succeed his father, Ali Khamenei, after the latter's assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes that opened the current conflict. This rapid, IRGC-backed transition by the clerical body aligned with Mojtaba's established ties to security institutions and conservative networks, despite traditional resistance to hereditary succession. Reza Pahlavi and other listed figures trail due to limited domestic institutional support and the regime's continuity preference amid wartime pressures. Recent factors include Mojtaba's limited public appearances since appointment, raising questions about his health and operational role, alongside ongoing military developments that could affect leadership stability through year-end. Trader consensus reflects the institutional process already completed while acknowledging potential shifts from conflict escalation or internal maneuvering.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$15,044,419
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 32 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Mojtaba Khamenei" con 79%, seguido de "Reza Pahlavi" con 5%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 79¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 79% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" ha generado $15 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 1, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?", explora los 32 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" es "Mojtaba Khamenei" con 79%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 79% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Reza Pahlavi" con 5%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.