Bank of Canada traders on Polymarket overwhelmingly back no change at the June 10 policy announcement, with a 95.5% implied probability reflecting the central bank's April 29 decision to hold the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% amid resurgent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year from 1.8% in February, driven by a 21% surge in gasoline prices tied to Middle East tensions and higher oil costs, prompting BoC warnings of elevated inflation risks despite modest 1.2% GDP growth projections for 2026. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores balanced labor markets and policy caution versus US tariff adjustments. A realistic challenge would require softer-than-expected April CPI data or sharper economic slowdown signals to revive rate-cut odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoBank of Canada decision in June?
Bank of Canada decision in June?
No change 95%
Increase 4.5%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$13,470 Vol.
$13,470 Vol.
10 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
95%
Increase
5%
No change 95%
Increase 4.5%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$13,470 Vol.
$13,470 Vol.
10 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,693 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,285 Vol.
<1%
No change
$6,038 Vol.
95%
Increase
$3,455 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Bank of Canada traders on Polymarket overwhelmingly back no change at the June 10 policy announcement, with a 95.5% implied probability reflecting the central bank's April 29 decision to hold the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% amid resurgent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year from 1.8% in February, driven by a 21% surge in gasoline prices tied to Middle East tensions and higher oil costs, prompting BoC warnings of elevated inflation risks despite modest 1.2% GDP growth projections for 2026. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores balanced labor markets and policy caution versus US tariff adjustments. A realistic challenge would require softer-than-expected April CPI data or sharper economic slowdown signals to revive rate-cut odds.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Volumen
$13,470Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Bank of Canada traders on Polymarket overwhelmingly back no change at the June 10 policy announcement, with a 95.5% implied probability reflecting the central bank's April 29 decision to hold the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% amid resurgent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year from 1.8% in February, driven by a 21% surge in gasoline prices tied to Middle East tensions and higher oil costs, prompting BoC warnings of elevated inflation risks despite modest 1.2% GDP growth projections for 2026. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores balanced labor markets and policy caution versus US tariff adjustments. A realistic challenge would require softer-than-expected April CPI data or sharper economic slowdown signals to revive rate-cut odds.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$13,470Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Bank of Canada traders on Polymarket overwhelmingly back no change at the June 10 policy announcement, with a 95.5% implied probability reflecting the central bank's April 29 decision to hold the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% amid resurgent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year from 1.8% in February, driven by a 21% surge in gasoline prices tied to Middle East tensions and higher oil costs, prompting BoC warnings of elevated inflation risks despite modest 1.2% GDP growth projections for 2026. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores balanced labor markets and policy caution versus US tariff adjustments. A realistic challenge would require softer-than-expected April CPI data or sharper economic slowdown signals to revive rate-cut odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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