Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton's commanding fundraising lead—$1.8 million cash on hand versus challenger Kai Newkirk's $13,500 as of late March—bolsters trader consensus on a Democratic hold in the D+4 leaning AZ-04 district ahead of the July 21 primaries. The suburban Phoenix seat, encompassing Tempe and Chandler, favored Kamala Harris by 7 points in 2024, aligning with Stanton's prior general election wins of 53% and 56%. Republican primary contenders Zuhdi Jasser, Elizabeth Reye, and Alex Stovall lack a clear frontrunner despite Jasser's $299,000 cash, while Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic. Absent polling shifts or national midterm waves, these fundamentals sustain the lopsided implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAZ-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
AZ-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$12,455 Vol.
$12,455 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
86%
Partido Republicano
14%
$12,455 Vol.
$12,455 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$10,165 Vol.
86%
Partido Republicano
$2,291 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton's commanding fundraising lead—$1.8 million cash on hand versus challenger Kai Newkirk's $13,500 as of late March—bolsters trader consensus on a Democratic hold in the D+4 leaning AZ-04 district ahead of the July 21 primaries. The suburban Phoenix seat, encompassing Tempe and Chandler, favored Kamala Harris by 7 points in 2024, aligning with Stanton's prior general election wins of 53% and 56%. Republican primary contenders Zuhdi Jasser, Elizabeth Reye, and Alex Stovall lack a clear frontrunner despite Jasser's $299,000 cash, while Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic. Absent polling shifts or national midterm waves, these fundamentals sustain the lopsided implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$12,455Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton's commanding fundraising lead—$1.8 million cash on hand versus challenger Kai Newkirk's $13,500 as of late March—bolsters trader consensus on a Democratic hold in the D+4 leaning AZ-04 district ahead of the July 21 primaries. The suburban Phoenix seat, encompassing Tempe and Chandler, favored Kamala Harris by 7 points in 2024, aligning with Stanton's prior general election wins of 53% and 56%. Republican primary contenders Zuhdi Jasser, Elizabeth Reye, and Alex Stovall lack a clear frontrunner despite Jasser's $299,000 cash, while Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic. Absent polling shifts or national midterm waves, these fundamentals sustain the lopsided implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$12,455Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton's commanding fundraising lead—$1.8 million cash on hand versus challenger Kai Newkirk's $13,500 as of late March—bolsters trader consensus on a Democratic hold in the D+4 leaning AZ-04 district ahead of the July 21 primaries. The suburban Phoenix seat, encompassing Tempe and Chandler, favored Kamala Harris by 7 points in 2024, aligning with Stanton's prior general election wins of 53% and 56%. Republican primary contenders Zuhdi Jasser, Elizabeth Reye, and Alex Stovall lack a clear frontrunner despite Jasser's $299,000 cash, while Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic. Absent polling shifts or national midterm waves, these fundamentals sustain the lopsided implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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