Incumbent Rep. Rick Crawford's unchallenged Republican primary in early March, combined with AR-01's deep-red partisan lean (Cook PVI R+23, the 18th most Republican district nationally), anchors trader consensus at 93% odds for a GOP hold. Crawford, chair of the House Intelligence Committee since last year, dominated past cycles with 73% margins in 2022 and 2024 against underfunded Democrats, bolstered by over $1 million cash-on-hand as of late March. Challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist who advanced unopposed on the Democratic side, shows no competitive fundraising. A shift would require a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Democratic wave before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAR-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
AR-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$15,465 Vol.
$15,465 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
93%
Partido Demócrata
7%
$15,465 Vol.
$15,465 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$11,066 Vol.
93%
Partido Demócrata
$4,399 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Rick Crawford's unchallenged Republican primary in early March, combined with AR-01's deep-red partisan lean (Cook PVI R+23, the 18th most Republican district nationally), anchors trader consensus at 93% odds for a GOP hold. Crawford, chair of the House Intelligence Committee since last year, dominated past cycles with 73% margins in 2022 and 2024 against underfunded Democrats, bolstered by over $1 million cash-on-hand as of late March. Challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist who advanced unopposed on the Democratic side, shows no competitive fundraising. A shift would require a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Democratic wave before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$15,465Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Rick Crawford's unchallenged Republican primary in early March, combined with AR-01's deep-red partisan lean (Cook PVI R+23, the 18th most Republican district nationally), anchors trader consensus at 93% odds for a GOP hold. Crawford, chair of the House Intelligence Committee since last year, dominated past cycles with 73% margins in 2022 and 2024 against underfunded Democrats, bolstered by over $1 million cash-on-hand as of late March. Challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist who advanced unopposed on the Democratic side, shows no competitive fundraising. A shift would require a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Democratic wave before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$15,465Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Rick Crawford's unchallenged Republican primary in early March, combined with AR-01's deep-red partisan lean (Cook PVI R+23, the 18th most Republican district nationally), anchors trader consensus at 93% odds for a GOP hold. Crawford, chair of the House Intelligence Committee since last year, dominated past cycles with 73% margins in 2022 and 2024 against underfunded Democrats, bolstered by over $1 million cash-on-hand as of late March. Challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist who advanced unopposed on the Democratic side, shows no competitive fundraising. A shift would require a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Democratic wave before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes