Proposal to appoint Ahn Cheol-soo as co-chair of the People Power Party election steering committee

Ahn Cheol-soo rises to 2%1%

Reports emerged that Ahn was proposed as a co-chair of the PPP's election steering committee, signaling his continued political relevance but not candidacy, causing a slight.

Democratic rival Jung Won‑oh launches a high‑profile campaign attack on Oh Se‑hoon, pushing his market

Oh Se‑hoon drops to 8%5%

Democratic rival Jung Won‑oh launches a high‑profile campaign attack on Oh Se‑hoon, pushing his market

Oh Se‑hoon unveils his campaign team of 12 citizen co‑chairs, but media coverage focuses on the Democratic Party’s aggressive ground game, keeping his probability low

Oh Se‑hoon dips to 8%3%

Oh Se‑hoon unveils his campaign team of 12 citizen co‑chairs, but media coverage focuses on the Democratic Party’s aggressive ground game, keeping his probability low

Oh Se-hoon launches his Seoul mayoral campaign, appointing 12 citizen co-chairs to broaden support, yet market confidence remains subdued

Oh Se-hoon launches his Seoul mayoral campaign, appointing 12 citizen co-chairs to broaden support, yet market confidence remains subdued

People Power Party accelerated by‑election nominations;

Han Dong‑hoon attended an alumni event in Busan as an independent candidate, confirming his focus on Busan and ending any remaining speculation about a Seoul run

People Power Party accelerates by-election nominations, with Han Dong-hoon running independently in Busan Buk-A, confirming his non-candidacy for Seoul mayor.

This news finalizes his political path away from Seoul mayoral race, maintaining the zero.

Oh Se-hoon officially registers as candidate and sets up a fact-finding committee on opponent Chong Won-o's controversies, intensifying the campaign battle but with limited

Oh Se-hoon rises to 14%4%

Oh Se-hoon officially registers as candidate and sets up a fact-finding committee on opponent Chong Won-o's controversies, intensifying the campaign battle but with limited

Oh Se‑hoon completes formal registration as a candidate, formally kicking off the campaign and prompting a final

Oh Se‑hoon rises to 15%2%

Oh Se‑hoon completes formal registration as a candidate, formally kicking off the campaign and prompting a final

Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission as a prospective candidate and announces a fact‑finding committee on rival Chong’s alleged corruption, causing a modest

Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission as a prospective candidate and announces a fact‑finding committee on rival Chong’s alleged corruption, causing a modest

Chong’s campaign faces opposition scrutiny over controversies, but market confidence remains high due to lack of PPP nominee and Chong’s strong polling

Chong Won-oh dips to 86%2%

Despite attacks on his record and ethics, the opposition’s delayed candidate selection and Chong’s polling advantage kept market odds elevated.

Oh Se‑hoon formally registers as a prospective candidate, launching his campaign and naming a fact‑finding committee to investigate opponent Chong’s alleged corruption, which

Oh Se‑hoon dips to 11%3%

Oh Se‑hoon formally registers as a prospective candidate, launching his campaign and naming a fact‑finding committee to investigate opponent Chong’s alleged corruption, which fails to lift his odds significantly

Polls showed Chong Won-o leading incumbent Oh Se-hoon by over 10 points, confirming Chong’s dominance and the irrelevance of other Democratic candidates like Hong Ihk-pyo in the

Polls showed Chong Won-o leading incumbent Oh Se-hoon by over 10 points, confirming Chong’s dominance and the irrelevance of other Democratic candidates like Hong Ihk-pyo in the mayoral race

Polls show Chong leading Oh by over 10 points, reflecting strong voter support on key issues like housing and redevelopment

Chong Won-oh surges to 88%17%

Public opinion surveys released after candidate confirmations reinforced Chong’s lead, driving market.

No significant positive developments for Cho Kuk; market

Cho Kuk dips to 0%1%

Lack of major news or breakthroughs for Cho Kuk's campaign led to sustained market rejection of his chances in the Seoul mayoral race.

Oh Se‑hoon and Democratic rival Chong Won‑o appear together at a public event, softening the heated campaign tone and giving a brief lift to Oh’s odds

Oh Se‑hoon rises to 12%2%

Oh Se‑hoon and Democratic rival Chong Won‑o appear together at a public event, softening the heated campaign tone and giving a brief lift to Oh’s odds

Oh Se‑hoon secures the PPP nomination after a contentious primary, briefly lifting his odds as the party unites behind him

Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 13%5%

Oh Se‑hoon secures the PPP nomination after a contentious primary, briefly lifting his odds as the party unites behind him

Oh Se‑hoon unveils an accelerated housing‑construction plan (310,000 homes by 2031), counter‑attacking the ruling party’s loan restrictions and attracting positive media coverage,

Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 13%5%

Oh Se‑hoon unveils an accelerated housing‑construction plan (310,000 homes by 2031), counter‑attacking the ruling party’s loan restrictions and attracting positive media coverage, which steadies his

The People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate at a press conference, framing the election as a “last safeguard” against the ruling

Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 13%5%

The People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate at a press conference, framing the election as a “last safeguard” against the ruling party; the nomination spikes his

People Power Party officially selects Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate, but the announcement is accompanied by criticism over his past tenure, causing a modest rebound then

Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 14%6%

People Power Party officially selects Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate, but the announcement is accompanied by criticism over his past tenure, causing a modest rebound then quick decline

People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se-hoon as its candidate for Seoul mayor, stabilizing his market

Oh Se-hoon jumps to 14%6%

People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se-hoon as its candidate for Seoul mayor, stabilizing his market

Han Dong‑hoon officially declared his Busan by‑election bid, stating “I will continue my political career here,” cementing his withdrawal from the Seoul mayoral contest

Han Dong‑hoon officially declared his Busan by‑election bid, stating “I will continue my political career here,” cementing his withdrawal from the Seoul mayoral contest

Han Dong-hoon officially announces his bid for the Busan Buk-gap by-election, confirming he is not a candidate for Seoul mayor.

Han Dong-hoon dips to 0%1%

This formal declaration further cements market consensus that he will not win Seoul mayor, keeping the.

Han Dong‑hoon publicly criticized the People Power Party leader’s U.S.

Han Dong‑hoon dips to 0%1%

trip and reiterated that his focus was on the upcoming Busan by‑election, further confirming his non‑participation in the Seoul race

Democratic Party officially nominates Chong Won‑o as its mayoral candidate, widening the gap and pushing Oh Se‑hoon’s

Oh Se‑hoon drops to 8%6%

Democratic Party officially nominates Chong Won‑o as its mayoral candidate, widening the gap and pushing Oh Se‑hoon’s

Democratic Party officially nominates Chong Won-o as its Seoul mayoral candidate, endorsed by President Lee Jae Myung

Chong Won-oh jumps to 88%7%

The formal nomination and presidential backing confirmed his candidacy, causing a significant jump in market confidence.

Democratic Party officially nominated Chong Won-o as its Seoul mayoral candidate after a competitive primary, effectively ending Hong Ihk-pyo’s chances and solidifying Chong’s

Democratic Party officially nominated Chong Won-o as its Seoul mayoral candidate after a competitive primary, effectively ending Hong Ihk-pyo’s chances and solidifying Chong’s lead in the race

Democratic Party selects Chong Won-o as its official Seoul mayoral candidate, defeating Park Ju-min and Jeon Hyun-hee

Park Ju-min drops to 0%5%

This decisive event ended Park's nomination hopes, causing his market

Report that Han Dong‑hoon was being floated as a contender in the Busan Buk‑A by‑election, sparking speculation that he would not run for Seoul mayor

Han Dong‑hoon dips to 1%4%

Report that Han Dong‑hoon was being floated as a contender in the Busan Buk‑A by‑election, sparking speculation that he would not run for Seoul mayor

Chong participates in Democratic Party primary debate, demonstrating leadership and policy knowledge

Chong Won-oh rises to 81%4%

His strong debate performance solidified his frontrunner status within the party, positively impacting market odds.

Speculation arises that Han Dong-hoon will run in the Busan Buk-gap by-election, not Seoul mayor, as reported by Seoul Economic Daily.

Han Dong-hoon drops to 1%5%

This news clarifies his political focus away from Seoul mayoral race, explaining the sustained low.

Park Ju-min criticizes fellow Democratic candidate Jung Won-oh's real estate pledges as unrealistic during the second joint debate

Park Ju-min dips to 4%3%

Despite his critiques, Park failed to gain significant momentum, reflected in a

Seo Young-kyo appointed head of Legislation and Judiciary Committee, focusing on reforms

Seo Young-kyo dips to 0%1%

Seo's appointment to a key parliamentary committee signaled a shift away from electoral politics toward legislative work, reinforcing market consensus that her mayoral chances were negligible.

Democratic Party candidates, including Hong Ihk-pyo, actively campaigned and engaged with voters, but Chong Won-o’s growing profile and endorsements started to dominate media and

Democratic Party candidates, including Hong Ihk-pyo, actively campaigned and engaged with voters, but Chong Won-o’s growing profile and endorsements started to dominate media and public attention

Chong appears in public events and media, reinforcing his campaign visibility ahead of party primaries

Chong Won-oh rises to 77%3%

Sustained media presence and campaign activities helped maintain market optimism despite minor fluctuations.

Oh Se‑hoon appears in a Yonhap interview confirming his participation in the PPP primary, but poll data shows Democratic candidate widening the gap

Oh Se‑hoon dips to 14%2%

Oh Se‑hoon appears in a Yonhap interview confirming his participation in the PPP primary, but poll data shows Democratic candidate widening the gap

Oh Se-hoon participates in party primary interviews, but uncertainty remains about his nomination prospects, keeping

Oh Se-hoon dips to 13%1%

Oh Se-hoon participates in party primary interviews, but uncertainty remains about his nomination prospects, keeping

Oh Se‑hoon appears in a Yonhap interview defending his record, which temporarily steadies the market and yields a small rebound

Oh Se‑hoon dips to 14%3%

Oh Se‑hoon appears in a Yonhap interview defending his record, which temporarily steadies the market and yields a small rebound

Park Ju-min advances to Democratic Party main primary amid intensifying negative attacks and scrutiny over rival Jung Won-oh's pledges

Park Ju-min rises to 7%3%

His advancement to the main primary and active criticism of rivals briefly boosted his market

After a week‑long power struggle within the PPP, Oh Se‑hoon publicly declares his run as the party’s candidate, pledging party reform;

Oh Se‑hoon rises to 18%4%

the decisive move lifts his odds sharply

Oh Se‑hoon finally files as a preliminary candidate but admits to “legal hurdles” over a past corruption probe, causing another

Oh Se‑hoon drops to 20%8%

Oh Se‑hoon finally files as a preliminary candidate but admits to “legal hurdles” over a past corruption probe, causing another

A poll released by a major Korean research firm shows Democratic candidate Chong Won‑o leading Oh Se‑hoon by double‑digits, driving the market down to a new low

Oh Se‑hoon dips to 17%3%

A poll released by a major Korean research firm shows Democratic candidate Chong Won‑o leading Oh Se‑hoon by double‑digits, driving the market down to a new low

Oh Se‑hoon’s “10‑Year Accountability Headquarters” is launched by rival Chong Won‑o, attacking Oh’s past policies;

Oh Se‑hoon dips to 17%3%

the negative campaign narrative drags his

Market reacts negatively as Oh Se-hoon faces challenges within the party and competition in the primary, leading to a sharp

Oh Se-hoon drops to 16%6%

Market reacts negatively as Oh Se-hoon faces challenges within the party and competition in the primary, leading to a sharp

PPP primary results show Oh Se‑hoon trailing behind other PPP hopefuls, prompting a sharp market sell‑off

Oh Se‑hoon drops to 16%6%

PPP primary results show Oh Se‑hoon trailing behind other PPP hopefuls, prompting a sharp market sell‑off

Oh Se-hoon peaks at 22% after registering for the People Power Party primary, showing renewed campaign momentum amid party leadership standoff

Oh Se-hoon rises to 22%1%

Oh Se-hoon peaks at 22% after registering for the People Power Party primary, showing renewed campaign momentum amid party leadership standoff

Oh Se‑hoon registers for the PPP primary after a leadership standoff, confirming his candidacy but also highlighting intra‑party tension

Oh Se‑hoon rises to 22%1%

Oh Se‑hoon registers for the PPP primary after a leadership standoff, confirming his candidacy but also highlighting intra‑party tension

Na Kyung-won criticizes government economic policies amid rising market tensions, but her influence appears limited as her market support drops to near zero

Na Kyung-won dips to 1%3%

Na Kyung-won criticizes government economic policies amid rising market tensions, but her influence appears limited as her market support drops to near zero

Minor uptick in Ahn Cheol-soo's market

Ahn Cheol-soo rises to 2%2%

Minor uptick in Ahn Cheol-soo's market

Democratic Party nominates Chong Won‑oh as its mayoral candidate, giving the opposition a clear front‑runner and pulling support away from Oh Se‑hoon

Oh Se‑hoon drops to 26%6%

Democratic Party nominates Chong Won‑oh as its mayoral candidate, giving the opposition a clear front‑runner and pulling support away from Oh Se‑hoon

Seo Young-kyo re-announces mayoral bid, criticizing incumbent Oh Se-hoon and promising citizen participation

Seo Young-kyo rises to 2%2%

Seo briefly revived her campaign with a renewed platform focusing on citizen engagement and criticizing the incumbent, causing a minor uptick in market

Oh Se‑hoon finally registers as a prospective candidate for the PPP, ending weeks of delay and giving the market a modest rebound

Oh Se‑hoon rises to 29%3%

Oh Se‑hoon finally registers as a prospective candidate for the PPP, ending weeks of delay and giving the market a modest rebound

Oh Se-hoon delays official candidacy declaration, calling for party reforms and leadership changes, creating uncertainty about his campaign strength and causing a

Oh Se-hoon drops to 28%10%

Oh Se-hoon delays official candidacy declaration, calling for party reforms and leadership changes, creating uncertainty about his campaign strength and causing a

Analysts note that Kang Hoon‑sik’s departure clears the field for other Democratic candidates, pushing his market

Analysts note that Kang Hoon‑sik’s departure clears the field for other Democratic candidates, pushing his market

Oh Se‑hoon delays filing his nomination with the National Election Commission, citing strategic timing, which triggers a sharp

Oh Se‑hoon dips to 26%3%

Oh Se‑hoon delays filing his nomination with the National Election Commission, citing strategic timing, which triggers a sharp

Oh Se‑hoon postpones his candidacy registration for a second time, citing demands for party‑wide reforms;

Oh Se‑hoon drops to 23%9%

the uncertainty pushes his odds to a trough

Kang Hoon‑sik formally submits his resignation as presidential chief of staff, confirming he is out of the mayoral race

Kang Hoon-sik dips to 0%3%

Kang Hoon‑sik formally submits his resignation as presidential chief of staff, confirming he is out of the mayoral race

Cho Kuk announces progressive policy platform focusing on land reform and public housing ahead of local elections

Cho Kuk rises to 1%1%

Cho Kuk's policy proposals aimed at social reform briefly revived some market interest, but this was insufficient to significantly improve his electoral prospects.

Chong Won-o gains momentum in early polls showing competitive standing against incumbent mayor Oh Se-hoon

Chong Won-oh jumps to 60%9%

Emerging polling data showing Chong as a viable challenger contributed to a steady rise in market probability.

Polls reveal tight races with Park Ju-min trailing Democratic frontrunner Chong Won-o and opposition candidates, highlighting his struggle to gain traction

Park Ju-min dips to 3%4%

Market reacted to Park's lagging position in polls against stronger contenders.

Poll shows Park Ju-min polling at 9% preference among Seoul voters, trailing behind other candidates like Chong Won-o and Na Kyung-won

Park Ju-min drops to 9%7%

This poll indicated weakening support relative to rivals, contributing to a

Na Kyung-won denies close ties with Unification Church leader Han Hak-ja, attempting to quell rumors but facing ongoing public skepticism

Na Kyung-won rises to 6%2%

Na Kyung-won denies close ties with Unification Church leader Han Hak-ja, attempting to quell rumors but facing ongoing public skepticism

Opposition leader Cho Kuk publicly challenges Na Kyung-won over alleged connections to the Unification Church and related controversies, intensifying negative media scrutiny

Na Kyung-won dips to 4%2%

Opposition leader Cho Kuk publicly challenges Na Kyung-won over alleged connections to the Unification Church and related controversies, intensifying negative media scrutiny

Oh Se‑hoon announces he will seek the People Power Party’s nomination, signalling a possible split with party leadership and driving another

Oh Se‑hoon dips to 37%4%

Oh Se‑hoon announces he will seek the People Power Party’s nomination, signalling a possible split with party leadership and driving another

Seo Young-kyo withdraws from Seoul mayoral race, endorses other Democratic candidates

Seo Young-kyo dips to 0%3%

Seo announced she would lay down her candidacy to consolidate support behind stronger Democratic contenders, effectively ending her campaign and causing the market

Multiple Democratic Party candidates, including Hong Ihk-pyo, declared their bids for Seoul mayor, but the crowded field and rising prominence of other candidates like Chong Won-o

Hong Ihk-pyo plunges to 1%49%

Multiple Democratic Party candidates, including Hong Ihk-pyo, declared their bids for Seoul mayor, but the crowded field and rising prominence of other candidates like Chong Won-o began to overshadow Hong’s campaign

President Lee Jae Myung publicly praises Chong Won-o’s performance as Seongdong district chief on social media

Chong Won-oh jumps to 43%7%

President Lee’s endorsement via social media significantly raised Chong’s profile and credibility, leading to increased market confidence.

President’s office confirms Kang Hoon‑sik will not seek the Seoul mayoral nomination, citing his new role as chief of staff

Kang Hoon-sik dips to 4%4%

President’s office confirms Kang Hoon‑sik will not seek the Seoul mayoral nomination, citing his new role as chief of staff

Oh Se‑hoon’s campaign office opens in Jongno, signalling a formal campaign launch and prompting a modest

Oh Se‑hoon dips to 37%4%

Oh Se‑hoon’s campaign office opens in Jongno, signalling a formal campaign launch and prompting a modest

PPP leadership announces internal dispute and delays the party’s official endorsement, creating uncertainty around Oh Se‑hoon’s candidacy

Oh Se‑hoon drops to 38%10%

PPP leadership announces internal dispute and delays the party’s official endorsement, creating uncertainty around Oh Se‑hoon’s candidacy

Media scrutiny and public doubts about Cho Kuk's political viability persist despite party leadership

Cho Kuk dips to 0%4%

Despite his party leadership, ongoing controversies related to past academic fraud scandals and limited party influence led to a collapse in market confidence, pushing his chances effectively to zero.

Chong Won-o officially declares bid for Seoul mayor, emphasizing administrative experience and alignment with President Lee Jae Myung’s administration

Chong Won-oh surges to 36%17%

Chong announced his candidacy for the June 3 election, positioning himself as a strong contender capable of ending incumbent Oh Se-hoon's tenure, which boosted early market interest.

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon registers as a preliminary candidate for Seoul mayor under the People Power Party, signaling his early commitment to the race and boosting initial market

Oh Se-hoon rises to 52%2%

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon registers as a preliminary candidate for Seoul mayor under the People Power Party, signaling his early commitment to the race and boosting initial market confidence

Na Kyung-won announces appeal against the "Fast Track" verdict, attempting to mitigate damage but maintaining legal uncertainty around her political future

Na Kyung-won rises to 7%1%

Na Kyung-won announces appeal against the "Fast Track" verdict, attempting to mitigate damage but maintaining legal uncertainty around her political future

Oh Se‑hoon files a preliminary candidacy with the National Election Commission, formally entering the race and prompting the market’s first sharp dip as voters reassess his

Oh Se‑hoon drops to 44%8%

Oh Se‑hoon files a preliminary candidacy with the National Election Commission, formally entering the race and prompting the market’s first sharp dip as voters reassess his early‑stage positioning

As head of the People Power Party’s local election planning task force, Na Kyung-won proposes reducing the primary polling share from 50% to 30%, a move seen as controversial

Na Kyung-won dips to 4%3%

As head of the People Power Party’s local election planning task force, Na Kyung-won proposes reducing the primary polling share from 50% to 30%, a move seen as controversial within the party and potentially divisive

Cho Kuk elected leader of the minor Rebuilding Korea Party with 98.6% approval

Cho Kuk rises to 4%2%

At the party's national convention in Cheongju, Cho Kuk was overwhelmingly elected party leader, signaling a political comeback and briefly boosting market confidence in his mayoral chances.

Kang Hoon‑sik’s resignation from the National Assembly announced, ending speculation about a mayoral run

Kang Hoon-sik plunges to 16%34%

Kang Hoon‑sik’s resignation from the National Assembly announced, ending speculation about a mayoral run

Seoul Southern District Court fines Na Kyung-won and others for involvement in the 2019 "Fast Track" National Assembly clash, marking a significant legal setback and raising

Na Kyung-won dips to 6%3%

Seoul Southern District Court fines Na Kyung-won and others for involvement in the 2019 "Fast Track" National Assembly clash, marking a significant legal setback and raising doubts about her candidacy

Seo Young-kyo denies Coupang lunch allegations, vows legal action

Seo Young-kyo dips to 12%4%

Seo strongly refuted allegations related to a Coupang lunch controversy, attempting to protect her reputation amid emerging negative press, which contributed to a slight

Na Kyung-won demands seizure of property linked to President Lee Jae-myung and associates in the Daejang-dong scandal, positioning herself strongly against the ruling party and

Na Kyung-won plunges to 5%45%

Na Kyung-won demands seizure of property linked to President Lee Jae-myung and associates in the Daejang-dong scandal, positioning herself strongly against the ruling party and signaling a hardline stance

Seo Young-kyo announces bid for Seoul mayor, pledging housing reforms and economic revitalization

Seo Young-kyo plunges to 16%34%

Seo Young-kyo declared her candidacy for Seoul mayor, outlining ambitious plans for housing stability and economic growth, marking her official entry into the race. This announcement initially boosted market interest but was followed by rapid

Ahn Cheol-soo announces he will not run for Seoul mayor in the 2026 local elections

Ahn Cheol-soo plunges to 5%45%

Ahn Cheol-soo publicly declared he would not run for the Seoul mayoral position, removing himself as a candidate and causing a sharp drop in market confidence in his chances.

Cho Kuk returns to politics after presidential pardon and prison release in August 2025

Cho Kuk plunges to 5%44%

Following his pardon by President Lee Jae Myung on August 11, 2025, and release from prison on August 15, Cho Kuk re-entered politics, but ongoing public skepticism and legal restrictions dampened his electoral prospects, causing a sharp market

PPP announces Oh Se‑hoon as its preferred mayoral contender, sparking an early rise in his market

Oh Se‑hoon rises to 52%2%

PPP announces Oh Se‑hoon as its preferred mayoral contender, sparking an early rise in his market

Initial market optimism with Han Dong-hoon at 50% likely reflected early speculation about his potential candidacy for Seoul mayor, but no specific news event is documented at

Initial market optimism with Han Dong-hoon at 50% likely reflected early speculation about his potential candidacy for Seoul mayor, but no specific news event is documented at this date. No verifiable news found for this date to explain the initial

Park Ju-min officially announces his candidacy for Seoul mayor, emphasizing labor reform and social justice policies

Park Ju-min plunges to 20%29%

His entry into the race initially garnered significant attention, but early polling showed a rapid drop as competition intensified.