Choo Mi-ae's dominant 93.3% implied probability in the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election stems from her April 7 primary victory, where the six-term Democratic Party of Korea lawmaker secured over 50% of the vote against incumbent Gov. Kim Dong-yeon and Rep. Han Jun-ho, clinching the party's nomination without a runoff. As the ruling party holds strong support in the populous province surrounding Seoul, traders view her as heavily favored ahead of the June 3 vote, bolstered by recent campaign pledges like a world-class semiconductor cluster. People Power Party candidate selection remains stalled in a multi-contender race, elevating ex-lawmaker Yoo Seung-min's distant second at 7%. Scenarios challenging her include a unified conservative nominee, late scandals, or national political shifts swaying battleground voters.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMarket
Market settles on low probability for Yoo's victory given all prior developments.
Internal PPP leadership tensions and candidate campaigns proceeded without Ahn Cheol-soo declaring a run, confirming his absence from the race and finalizing market
Internal PPP leadership tensions and candidate campaigns proceeded without Ahn Cheol-soo declaring a run, confirming his absence from the race and finalizing market
PPP accelerates by‑election nominations in Gyeonggi (Hanam‑A) and selects other candidates, effectively sidelining Yoo Seong‑min from any gubernatorial role, cementing his low
Yoo Seong‑min rises to 2%1%
PPP accelerates by‑election nominations in Gyeonggi (Hanam‑A) and selects other candidates, effectively sidelining Yoo Seong‑min from any gubernatorial role, cementing his low probability
People Power Party accelerates by-election nominations but does not nominate Yoo Seong-min for Gyeonggi governor, signaling party's move away from him
Party's nomination process excluding Yoo confirmed his diminished role.
People Power Party accelerates by‑election nominations in Gyeonggi (Hanam‑A) and selects other candidates (Kim Seok‑hoon, Yoo Eui‑dong), confirming that Yoo Seong‑min is not in
People Power Party accelerates by‑election nominations in Gyeonggi (Hanam‑A) and selects other candidates (Kim Seok‑hoon, Yoo Eui‑dong), confirming that Yoo Seong‑min is not in the candidate pool, cementing his low odds
Former lawmaker Cho Eung‑chun declares Gyeonggi governor candidacy, adding a new conservative contender and further marginalising Yoo Seong‑min’s prospects
Former lawmaker Cho Eung‑chun declares Gyeonggi governor candidacy, adding a new conservative contender and further marginalising Yoo Seong‑min’s prospects
Former lawmaker Cho Eung-chun announces candidacy for Gyeonggi governor, adding a new conservative contender and complicating opposition dynamics
New conservative candidate announcement further reduced Yoo's chances.
The People Power Party (PPP) signaled it would finalize its candidate on May 2, keeping the opposition field open and reinforcing the perception that Choo remained the
The People Power Party (PPP) signaled it would finalize its candidate on May 2, keeping the opposition field open and reinforcing the perception that Choo remained the front‑runner.
Former lawmaker Cho Eung‑cheon entered the race as a Reform‑Party candidate, creating a three‑way contest and prompting analysts to reassess Choo’s lead.
Former lawmaker Cho Eung‑cheon entered the race as a Reform‑Party candidate, creating a three‑way contest and prompting analysts to reassess Choo’s lead.
Continued political polarization and Democratic Party strength in Gyeonggi Province maintain Lee Un-ju's market
No significant events improved Lee Un-ju's standing, keeping her market probability at zero.
People Power Party delays its Gyeonggi governor nomination to May 2, signalling internal turmoil and leaving no opening for Yeom Tae‑yeong as an independent or third‑party
People Power Party delays its Gyeonggi governor nomination to May 2, signalling internal turmoil and leaving no opening for Yeom Tae‑yeong as an independent or third‑party candidate
People Power Party delayed its nomination for Gyeonggi governor to May 2, with no indication of Ahn Cheol-soo entering the race, reinforcing market consensus of his non-candidacy
Ahn Cheol-soo dips to 0%1%
People Power Party delayed its nomination for Gyeonggi governor to May 2, with no indication of Ahn Cheol-soo entering the race, reinforcing market consensus of his non-candidacy
People Power Party delays its Gyeonggi governor nomination, shifting focus to the remaining Democratic contenders and further marginalising Yeom
Yeom Tae‑yeong dips to 0%1%
People Power Party delays its Gyeonggi governor nomination, shifting focus to the remaining Democratic contenders and further marginalising Yeom
Choo Mi‑ae clinched the DP’s Gyeonggi governor nomination, defeating rival Han Jun‑ho and incumbent Kim Dong‑yeon in the primary.
Choo Mi‑ae clinched the DP’s Gyeonggi governor nomination, defeating rival Han Jun‑ho and incumbent Kim Dong‑yeon in the primary.
Han Jun-ho apologizes for controversial remarks calling Choo Mi-ae an "unprepared candidate," attempting to mend party unity after the primary defeat
Han Jun-ho dips to 0%1%
The controversy and apology coincided with the final collapse of his market
DP chair So Byung‑hoon publicly declared Choo Mi‑ae had secured a majority of votes in the primary, underscoring party confidence in her victory.
DP chair So Byung‑hoon publicly declared Choo Mi‑ae had secured a majority of votes in the primary, underscoring party confidence in her victory.
Kim Dong-yeon makes final appeal as "economic commander" to lead Gyeonggi through crisis, but fails to sway primary voters
Kim Dong-yeon plunges to 0%34%
Kim Dong-yeon makes final appeal as "economic commander" to lead Gyeonggi through crisis, but fails to sway primary voters
KBS World reported the DP’s selection of Choo Mi‑ae as its Gyeonggi governor candidate, reinforcing the news cycle across multiple outlets.
KBS World reported the DP’s selection of Choo Mi‑ae as its Gyeonggi governor candidate, reinforcing the news cycle across multiple outlets.
Choo Mi-ae secures the Democratic Party's nomination for Gyeonggi governor, defeating Han Jun-ho and incumbent Kim Dong-yeon in the primary; Han concedes defeat and pledges support for Lee Jae-myung's administration
Han Jun-ho dips to 1%2%
Han's primary loss caused a sharp drop in market
The Democratic Party announced Choo Mi‑ae as its official candidate for Gyeonggi Governor, confirming her nomination without a runoff.
The Democratic Party announced Choo Mi‑ae as its official candidate for Gyeonggi Governor, confirming her nomination without a runoff.
Kim Dong-yeon concedes primary defeat, pledges to support Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung administration, signaling end of his gubernatorial bid
Kim Dong-yeon plunges to 0%30%
Kim Dong-yeon concedes primary defeat, pledges to support Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung administration, signaling end of his gubernatorial bid
Choo Mi‑ae wins Democratic primary, defeating incumbent Kim Dong‑yeon and eliminating all other hopefuls, including Yeom Tae‑yeong
Yeom Tae‑yeong dips to 0%2%
Choo Mi‑ae wins Democratic primary, defeating incumbent Kim Dong‑yeon and eliminating all other hopefuls, including Yeom Tae‑yeong
Choo Mi-ae secures Democratic Party nomination for Gyeonggi governor, defeating incumbent Kim Dong-yeon in the primary
Kim Dong-yeon plunges to 0%30%
Choo Mi-ae secures Democratic Party nomination for Gyeonggi governor, defeating incumbent Kim Dong-yeon in the primary
Democratic Party leadership holds a supreme council meeting in Suwon to support the Gyeonggi governor primary candidates, including Han Jun-ho, as the primary result approaches
Han Jun-ho dips to 3%1%
Party-level support efforts were underway but did not translate into
Democratic Party holds main primary race for Gyeonggi governor nomination among Kim Dong-yeon, Choo Mi-ae, and Han Jun-ho
Kim Dong-yeon drops to 30%5%
Democratic Party holds main primary race for Gyeonggi governor nomination among Kim Dong-yeon, Choo Mi-ae, and Han Jun-ho
Kim Dong-yeon leads Democratic Party Gyeonggi governor race in a poll outside the margin of error, showing strong support ahead of the primary
Kim Dong-yeon surges to 40%19%
Kim Dong-yeon leads Democratic Party Gyeonggi governor race in a poll outside the margin of error, showing strong support ahead of the primary
Joint speech rally highlights Kim Dong-yeon's emphasis on economic crisis management, positioning himself as "economic 119" to appeal to voters
Kim Dong-yeon drops to 35%5%
Joint speech rally highlights Kim Dong-yeon's emphasis on economic crisis management, positioning himself as "economic 119" to appeal to voters
Han Jun-ho presents his vision and policies at a joint speech rally one day before the Democratic Party primary vote, stressing the need for "necessary politics" over new politics
Han Jun-ho dips to 4%3%
His policy pitch shortly before the primary vote did not significantly boost his standing.
Lee Jun‑seok admits to using a forged Harvard diploma in an academic‑fraud row
The revelation of a fabricated academic credential further eroded trust in his integrity, confirming the market’s assessment that his chances of winning the Gyeonggi governorship were effectively nil.
People Power Party publicly says it is “considering Yoo Seong‑min” as a moderate counter‑balance to Choo Mi‑ae, sparking a brief rally in his odds
Yoo Seong‑min rises to 14%2%
People Power Party publicly says it is “considering Yoo Seong‑min” as a moderate counter‑balance to Choo Mi‑ae, sparking a brief rally in his odds
Yoo Seong‑min repeatedly rebuffs PPP’s calls to run for Gyeonggi Governor at a West Sea Defense Day ceremony, signalling he will not enter the race and sending his
Yoo Seong‑min drops to 7%7%
Yoo Seong‑min repeatedly rebuffs PPP’s calls to run for Gyeonggi Governor at a West Sea Defense Day ceremony, signalling he will not enter the race and sending his
PPP leadership reaches out again to Yoo Seong‑min (Jang Dong‑hyuk interview) but he again states “no change in my decision not to run,” reinforcing the market’s bearish view
Yoo Seong‑min dips to 6%1%
PPP leadership reaches out again to Yoo Seong‑min (Jang Dong‑hyuk interview) but he again states “no change in my decision not to run,” reinforcing the market’s bearish view
People Power Party admits it is “struggling” to find a Gyeonggi candidate and formally considers Yoo Seong‑min as a moderate counter‑balance, but he repeatedly rebuffs the party’s
Yoo Seong‑min rises to 6%1%
People Power Party admits it is “struggling” to find a Gyeonggi candidate and formally considers Yoo Seong‑min as a moderate counter‑balance, but he repeatedly rebuffs the party’s calls to run
Yoo Seong‑min again refuses PPP’s invitation at a West Sea Defense Day ceremony, stating he has no intention to run, which pushes his odds down further
Yoo Seong‑min dips to 5%1%
Yoo Seong‑min again refuses PPP’s invitation at a West Sea Defense Day ceremony, stating he has no intention to run, which pushes his odds down further
Jang Dong‑hyuk (PPP) publicly reaches out to Yoo Seong‑min for the Gyeonggi bid;
Yoo Seong‑min dips to 1%4%
Yoo’s firm “no change” stance is reported, confirming his non‑participation and sending his
Yoo Seong-min reiterates refusal to run for Gyeonggi governor despite repeated calls from People Power Party, maintaining his non-candidacy stance
Yoo Seong-min dips to 2%4%
Continued refusal solidified market view that Yoo would not be a candidate.
Continued reports of PPP struggling to find a strong candidate for Gyeonggi governor mentioned calls to draft Ahn Cheol-soo, but he remained non-committal, maintaining market
Ahn Cheol-soo rises to 1%1%
Continued reports of PPP struggling to find a strong candidate for Gyeonggi governor mentioned calls to draft Ahn Cheol-soo, but he remained non-committal, maintaining market skepticism about his participation
Han Jun-ho begins full-scale campaigning in the Democratic Party's Gyeonggi governor primary alongside Choo Mi-ae and incumbent Kim Dong-yeon
Han Jun-ho dips to 7%2%
The start of the main primary campaign period saw a slight
Democratic Party narrows Gyeonggi governor race to three candidates, effectively excluding Yeom Tae‑yeong from the primary contest
Yeom Tae‑yeong drops to 7%6%
Democratic Party narrows Gyeonggi governor race to three candidates, effectively excluding Yeom Tae‑yeong from the primary contest
Han Jun-ho participates in a joint speech event with other Democratic Party candidates, emphasizing his commitment to realizing the pragmatic policy achievements of the Lee Jae-myung administration and calling for more debates
Han Jun-ho dips to 9%2%
His active campaigning and policy positioning maintained moderate market interest.
Kim Dong-yeon and Choo Mi-ae both declare candidacies for the Democratic Party primary, initiating a five-way contest and increasing competition
Kim Dong-yeon dips to 35%1%
Kim Dong-yeon and Choo Mi-ae both declare candidacies for the Democratic Party primary, initiating a five-way contest and increasing competition
Choo Mi-ae and Kim Dong-yeon officially declare candidacies for Gyeonggi governor; Yoo Seong-min again declines to run despite speculation
Yoo Seong-min dips to 6%2%
Official candidacies by stronger contenders further marginalized Yoo's prospects.
Incumbent Governor Kim Dong‑yeon and six‑term lawmaker Choo Mi‑ae both declared their bids for the Gyeonggi governorship, turning the race into a five‑way primary contest.
Incumbent Governor Kim Dong‑yeon and six‑term lawmaker Choo Mi‑ae both declared their bids for the Gyeonggi governorship, turning the race into a five‑way primary contest.
Ahn Cheol-soo declined to run for the Democratic Party's gubernatorial nomination, along with other potential candidates, solidifying his non-candidacy and contributing to
Ahn Cheol-soo dips to 0%3%
Ahn Cheol-soo declined to run for the Democratic Party's gubernatorial nomination, along with other potential candidates, solidifying his non-candidacy and contributing to sustained low market
Yonhap reported the DP would hold a preliminary primary (Mar 21‑22) and a final primary (Apr 5‑7) to narrow the field, outlining the timeline that later culminated in Choo’s
Yonhap reported the DP would hold a preliminary primary (Mar 21‑22) and a final primary (Apr 5‑7) to narrow the field, outlining the timeline that later culminated in Choo’s nomination.
Democratic Party of Korea confirms Han Jun-ho as one of five candidates in the Gyeonggi gubernatorial primary, setting the stage for a competitive race
Han Jun-ho dips to 11%3%
Official confirmation of candidacy amid a crowded field likely caused some
Democratic Party's landslide victories in 2025 by-elections and local elections confirm political dominance in Gyeonggi Province
The opposition's failure to gain ground in local elections reinforced the market's zero valuation of Lee Un-ju's chances.
Lee Jun‑seok’s YouTube debate on election fraud draws 5 million+ views, sparking criticism
The high‑profile online debate amplified conspiracy‑theory accusations against him, reinforcing negative public perception and cementing the zero‑
Lee Jun‑seok’s election‑fraud debate video tops 5 million views, underscoring low support – A marathon YouTube discussion hosted by Lee attracted massive viewership but failed to
Lee Jun‑seok’s election‑fraud debate video tops 5 million views, underscoring low support – A marathon YouTube discussion hosted by Lee attracted massive viewership but failed to translate into electoral backing, confirming the market’s assessment that he was no longer a viable gubernatorial contender.
Survey indicates Kim Dong-yeon emerging as the frontrunner in the Democratic Party gubernatorial race, boosting market confidence
Kim Dong-yeon rises to 37%3%
Survey indicates Kim Dong-yeon emerging as the frontrunner in the Democratic Party gubernatorial race, boosting market confidence
Democratic Party narrows Gyeonggi governor primary to three candidates (Han, Choo, Kim), leaving Yeom out of the final contest
Yeom Tae‑yeong drops to 2%5%
Democratic Party narrows Gyeonggi governor primary to three candidates (Han, Choo, Kim), leaving Yeom out of the final contest
Poll shows Yeom Tae‑yeong at only 3 % support among Democratic primary voters, far behind front‑runners Kim Dong‑yeon and Choo Mi‑ae
Yeom Tae‑yeong drops to 6%7%
Poll shows Yeom Tae‑yeong at only 3 % support among Democratic primary voters, far behind front‑runners Kim Dong‑yeon and Choo Mi‑ae
Polls confirm Kim Dong-yeon and Choo Mi-ae as frontrunners for Gyeonggi governor, with Yoo Seong-min trailing far behind, reinforcing market skepticism about his chances
Yoo Seong-min drops to 7%6%
Market adjusted to reflect Yoo's low polling numbers.
President Lee Jae Myung's approval rating remains high at 59%, reinforcing his political strength
Lee Un-ju dips to 5%1%
Sustained high approval ratings for Lee Jae Myung indicated continued public support for his party, further weakening Lee Un-ju's electoral prospects.
Reform Party leader Lee Jun‑seok cleared of false‑information charge – A court found insufficient evidence that Lee had fabricated a 6 million‑won survey cost, ending a legal
Reform Party leader Lee Jun‑seok cleared of false‑information charge – A court found insufficient evidence that Lee had fabricated a 6 million‑won survey cost, ending a legal battle that had kept his candidacy under scrutiny. The clearance halted further
Police clear Lee Jun‑seok of false‑information charge over alleged 2022 survey‑funding scandal
Although the clearance removed a separate legal cloud (the claim that he funded a 2022 local‑election survey), the repeated need for police investigations underscored a pattern of legal troubles, preventing any rebound in his market
Poll shows Kim Dong-yeon leading the Gyeonggi governor race with Yoo Seong-min trailing significantly, indicating Yoo's weakening position as a viable candidate
Yoo Seong-min drops to 7%7%
Poll results highlighted Yoo's declining competitiveness, contributing to
Poll shows Kim Dong-yeon leading the Democratic Party field for Gyeonggi governor, reinforcing his frontrunner status
Kim Dong-yeon surges to 35%18%
Poll shows Kim Dong-yeon leading the Democratic Party field for Gyeonggi governor, reinforcing his frontrunner status
Yeom Tae‑yeong publicly endorses Han Jun‑ho and holds a strategy briefing, indicating he is no longer a candidate
Yeom Tae‑yeong drops to 7%6%
Yeom Tae‑yeong publicly endorses Han Jun‑ho and holds a strategy briefing, indicating he is no longer a candidate
Poll shows Yeom Tae‑yeong at just 3 % support in Democratic Party primary, far behind front‑runners
Yeom Tae‑yeong plunges to 13%37%
Poll shows Yeom Tae‑yeong at just 3 % support in Democratic Party primary, far behind front‑runners
Police clear Lee Jun‑seok of false‑information charge related to explicit debate comments
Lee Jun‑seok dips to 3%4%
The Reform Party leader was cleared of a false‑information allegation concerning the same debate remark, but the police cited “insufficient evidence,” keeping the controversy alive and reinforcing doubts about his electability, which pushed the
Yoo Seong-min publicly rebuffs calls from People Power Party leadership to run for Gyeonggi governor, stating he has not given an answer and has no intention to run despite party appeals
Yoo Seong-min plunges to 5%43%
This announcement dampened market expectations for his candidacy, triggering a steep
Lee Jun‑seok’s explicit comment in a live debate sparks outrage and expulsion calls – During the first televised presidential‑debate, Lee used graphic language about a female
Lee Jun-seok plunges to 3%24%
Lee Jun‑seok’s explicit comment in a live debate sparks outrage and expulsion calls – During the first televised presidential‑debate, Lee used graphic language about a female politician, prompting civic groups and opposition lawmakers to demand his removal from the National Assembly. The controversy coincided with the market’s sharp drop that week.
Han Jun-ho announces his bid for Gyeonggi Governor, pledging to continue Lee Jae-myung's policies and opposing cluster relocation while promoting innovation hubs and the GTX-Ring project
Han Jun-ho drops to 18%8%
This announcement marked Han's formal entry into the race, initially boosting his market
Early speculation about Ahn Cheol-soo as a potential candidate for Gyeonggi governor surfaced amid PPP's difficulty in fielding strong candidates, but he did not formally declare
Ahn Cheol-soo drops to 3%9%
Early speculation about Ahn Cheol-soo as a potential candidate for Gyeonggi governor surfaced amid PPP's difficulty in fielding strong candidates, but he did not formally declare candidacy, leading to initial
Lee Jae Myung sworn in as 14th President of South Korea after winning the June 2025 presidential election with a strong mandate
Lee Un-ju plunges to 6%44%
Lee Jae Myung's victory and inauguration consolidated the Democratic Party's power, diminishing the perceived chances of opposition candidates like Lee Un-ju in regional elections.
Kim Dong-yeon officially announces candidacy for Gyeonggi Province governor at Anyang Station, marking the start of his campaign for reelection
Kim Dong-yeon plunges to 19%31%
Kim Dong-yeon officially announces candidacy for Gyeonggi Province governor at Anyang Station, marking the start of his campaign for reelection
Lawmakers file disciplinary motion to expel Lee Jun‑seok over misogynistic debate remark
Lee Jun‑seok plunges to 7%20%
Twenty‑one MPs from five parties lodged a motion to suspend Lee, accusing him of sexual harassment and election‑law violations after he asked a provocative question about “sticking chopsticks in a woman’s genitals” during a televised debate. The motion sparked a nationwide backlash and caused the market’s confidence in his gubernatorial prospects to plunge sharply.
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