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Iran Ceasefire predictions & odds

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US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?

US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?

<1%

April 22

$186M Vol.

$66M today

$7M Liq.

5,881

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by...?

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by...?

100%

April 26

$16M Vol.

$4M today

$3M Liq.

2,474

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

34%

June 30

$68M Vol.

$1M today

$1M Liq.

1,442

Ends in about 1 month

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

64%

June 30

$29M Vol.

$1M today

$275K Liq.

5

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

52%

June 30

$43M Vol.

$655K today

$382K Liq.

737

Ends in 2 months

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

42%

May 31

$10M Vol.

$359K today

$349K Liq.

265

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

25%

December 31

$9M Vol.

$228K today

$266K Liq.

97

Ends in 8 months

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

41%

December 31

$5M Vol.

$148K today

$332K Liq.

102

Ends in 8 months

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

1%

Oil Sanction Relief

$4M Vol.

$104K today

$136K Liq.

143

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

63%

Pakistan

$3M Vol.

$94.8K today

$365K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?

Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?

87%

No Meeting before May 11

$1M Vol.

$81.9K today

$317K Liq.

22

Ends in 9 days

Who will meet with Iran by April 30?

Who will meet with Iran by April 30?

1%

Jared Kushner

$2M Vol.

$54.1K today

$84.5K Liq.

92

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

5%

$360K Vol.

$45.1K Liq.

33

Ends in about 1 month

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

8%

June 30

$445K Vol.

$114K Liq.

8

Ends in 2 months

Will Trump visit Pakistan by...?

Will Trump visit Pakistan by...?

8%

May 31

$597K Vol.

$13.8K Liq.

13

Ends in about 1 month

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

<1%

$2M Vol.

$61.6K Liq.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

18%

$33.8K Vol.

$39.9K Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

18%

$18.0K Vol.

$52.8K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

28%

$677K Vol.

$68.0K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

<1%

$2M Vol.

$70.5K Liq.

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for Iran Ceasefire that lets you track or trade on predictions like “US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $381.9M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 0% chance to April 22. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Iran Ceasefire predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.